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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
There are really only 2 ways a Conservstive-Brexit Party pact *could* work

1 Farage repeats UKIP in 2010 via informal pact, stands down for "true No Dealers"/'Spartans'

2 Stands down in X no. of Lab-Con marginals in return for free run at X no. at northern pro-Brexit Lab seats
As I have already pointed out, the former really only makes sense for a few Conservative No Dealers like Villiers or Duddridge. Most No Dealers are in safe seats and really do not need a deal
unherd.com/2019/09/how-it…
A marginals-led pact wd make more sense whereby Brexit Party is given free run at *some* Labour Leave seats like Hartlepool, Rother Valley. Rotherham, Heywood & Middleton where 1) UKIP strong 2015/ legacy of Farage support & 2) Tories have no hope because...they are "the Tories"
A voter-led pact (e.g. sign up to this website and trade your votes) would have no hope. Tactical voting effects routinely exaggerated and wd probably only work if you forcibly remove an option on the ballot for voters. But ...
All of this is redundant bc of ... personalities. Cummings loathes Farage, Farage loathes Cummings, Farage distrusts Johnson & while Johnson might be willing realign his party I doubt he wd formally get into bed with Farage. Informal local pacts? Poss. Major formal pact? Doubt it
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Ok tweeps, what's your best bet for when Britain's next election will be?
*We must remember this when we are lining up to vote in the January snow
November it is!
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
This should scare the sh*t out of Number 10
In 2017 Theresa May overestimated the appeal of the Conservative Party in Labour areas (she won only six pro-Leave Labour seats). Labour territory is now also absolutely key to Johnson's path to a majority. But he too might find that it is a very hard nut to crack.
Consider how deep into Labour territory Johnson may have to dig to offset losses in Scotland, London & southern Remainia. Some big shifts likely required among Lab voters who culturally agree w/ Cons on Brexit but economicallyare v v sceptical about whether Cons "on their side"
Read 5 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
There are are only four certainties about the next general election in Britain, which would be the country's fifth nationwide contest in only four years
#pmqs #Brexit
First, it will strengthen our emerging Brexit identities. Since the referendum, studies suggest that our identities as 'Remainers' or 'Leavers' have become as important, if not more important, than our traditional party political identities. Another election will cement this.
Second, these identities & another toxic election will fuel the polarisation of British society. Research shows Britain is now suffering from 'affective polarisation' like the US -Brexit identities leading us to feel emotionally attached to our tribe but also hostile to the other
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to another #Brexit thread

I'll be attempting to cover the events that are happening both in the Commons and in the Lords today so this is going to be a long one

1/n
So first things first, hello to all my new followers and here's a quick breakdown of what's happening today, and a quick precis of how business in each House is carried out and why really arcane things seem to happen that bear little-to-no relationship to reality

2/n
What's expected for today?

In the Lords the Opposition and Crossbench peers have laid a motion that will allow them the time to scrutinise the Bill that's about to be debated in the Commons. They want to debate this Bill on Friday at the latest. More on that later

3/n
Read 130 tweets
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StatisticusCollegium
@verumandverus
MINI THREAD - Next General Election

There are some mixed messages coming from #Boris on what sort of #Brexit he will deliver on October 31st.

Here's my perspective as a voter on what happens in 3 scenarios

#BrexitElection

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If GE is before 31/10 choice will be

1. @conservatives (featuring @brexitparty_uk)
2. @LibDems (featuring @UKLabour & @theSNP)

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#BrexitElection

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GE after #Boris failed to deliver Proper #Brexit on 31/10 choice will be between

1. @brexitparty_uk
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TBP wins in a landslide outside London & Scotland. Tories wiped out. Labour wiped out in the Mids and North

#BrexitElection

/3
Read 10 tweets
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Simon Wardley #EEA
@swardley
X : No deal brexit will be a disaster for the poor.
Me : Selling fear to people with little hope rarely works. Try ... if we remain, the Gov will undertake a massive redistribution of wealth in the order of £500bn to tackle inequality including wealth taxes, higher tax rates etc.
... if masses took to the streets demanding remain in EU but 20% one off wealth taxes on property over £1M, 80% tax rate on income over £200k, inheritance to be treated as income, abolish private schools and investment for services for the poor ... you might win more support.
You can't disentangle the issues of democracy from leave but you can certainly disentangle the issues of austerity. It requires a big shock, huge redistribution of wealth and a strong message of hope.
Read 4 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) some of our new #Brexit Party MEPs @jaglancy @BrexitAlex @MartinDaubney & @Fox_Claire have been talking about "defending democracy"

So on that note I'd like to ask them
a) are you actually a party member?
b) is it true I can't join BxP, only "subscribe", like Netflix?
@jaglancy @BrexitAlex @MartinDaubney @Fox_Claire 2)
c) is it true that I therefore can't vote on BxP policy?
d) Has BxP *really* been designed so that Farage cannot be challenged as Leader? How do you feel about that?
e) are there any actual democratic processes at all inside BxP?
@jaglancy @BrexitAlex @MartinDaubney @Fox_Claire 3)
This idea of "consulting subscribers to build the manifesto"
f) how will that work democratically?
g) How do you count "consultations"?
h) who does the counting?
i) who decides the "will of the subscribers"?
j) are you comfortable describing this as a "democratic process"?
Read 5 tweets
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets

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#Brexit #PeoplesVote #Trump #TheresaMay #Labour #NoDealBrexit #ThirdReading #ToryParty #HouseOfCommons #Clause1asAmended #CooperBill #Margin #Letwin #NewClause13 #SorosFunded #PMQs #May #CooperLetwin #Ayes #Noes #Amendment1 #clauses #leavers #SecondReading #SecondTime
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