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1./
Amid the 2017 local elections, I remember one and only one analyst correctly writing that the Tories could take nothing for granted about the general election a month later @StephenDFisher
Here is his take on 2019
prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/unite…
Amid the 2017 local elections, I remember one and only one analyst correctly writing that the Tories could take nothing for granted about the general election a month later @StephenDFisher
Here is his take on 2019
prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/unite…
2/
Starting point the amazing picture of flux in this table
Starting point the amazing picture of flux in this table
3/
With all the caveats, his “nowcast” implies tories remain close to where they are now, c220 seats — tho under the bonnet there are chunky gains from labour offset by losses to LDs & SNP there
With all the caveats, his “nowcast” implies tories remain close to where they are now, c220 seats — tho under the bonnet there are chunky gains from labour offset by losses to LDs & SNP there
4/
But everything depends on how far the Leave & Remain blocs can co-ordinate
But everything depends on how far the Leave & Remain blocs can co-ordinate
5/
If Tories can squeeze Brexit P hard while Remainers splinter, Johnson’s majority could be 100+
If Tories can squeeze Brexit P hard while Remainers splinter, Johnson’s majority could be 100+
6/
If Brexit Party can’t be squeezed, and Lab/Lib co-operate well in tactical ways the picture could be entirely different — up to a Labour majority of 30 or so
If Brexit Party can’t be squeezed, and Lab/Lib co-operate well in tactical ways the picture could be entirely different — up to a Labour majority of 30 or so
7/
But politically it’s harder to see that Lib/Lab cooperation working just now. Put that together with the fact that Leave starts with an (often narrow) majority in the great bulk of seats, and on current polls Tory advance looks more likely than Tories sliding back
Ends
But politically it’s harder to see that Lib/Lab cooperation working just now. Put that together with the fact that Leave starts with an (often narrow) majority in the great bulk of seats, and on current polls Tory advance looks more likely than Tories sliding back
Ends
