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There have been three special elections for House seats since the midterms. All three of those elections have been won by the GOP. 2 of those wins with greater than +20% margins. The NC09 election was a bellwether because the Dems ran the race they plan to run 2020
The candidate was picked by central casting. Eagle scout, Former military member (in a pro military district), family man, business owner(of a green energy/solar firm) church goer, harvard grad...it doesn't get better than this on a candidate basis. It's like Conner Lamb again.
With this central casting candidate the Dems pushed a flyover type of policy campaign. They talked about "healthcare", "prescription drug prices", "trade deals", securing the border(with no wall), ending family speration at border, middle class tax cuts, etc.
Basically, they ran a central casting candidate with a Trumpian list of issues. Of course they also included the bread and butter Dem issues like climate change, pro abortion and some type of gun control.
In other words, the Dems ran a central casting candidate who promoted solid "poll tested" issues. But the Dems didn't stop there. They also massively funded that central casting candidate with $$millions of dollars. Basically the Dems game plan for 2018 and 2020.
But a funny thing happened last night. The Dems LOST with this strategy. IMO the reason this strategy lost last night but worked in 2018 is because they now have the House. In 2018, they could promise these things without consequences.
Now, since they have power, voters want results not promises. Instead of delivering on the promises made in 2018, the Dems voted for Pelosi for Speaker, went full impeachment crazy and refuse to work with Trump and the GOP to solve these issues and the voters IMO are not fooled.
So, the Dems are 0-3 in special elections. They have been defeated by wide margins in two of the three. The one election where they had the "perfect" candidate with the "perfect" campaign platform and the "perfect" funding they also lost.
This is why NC09 is a bellwether. The Dems executed their "perfect" strategy to keep the House/defeat Trump and it FAILED BIGLY. There is a good chance if the Dems continue with the current strategy they will fail in 2020. NC09 shockwaves will be felt in Dem circles for ...
..... months. The media won't report on it, but NC09 changes the game in many ways. It's not 2018 anymore. The Dems only won the House by less than 100k votes out of 113+ million. It was a razor thin margin, less than .08%. Their actions in the House this year doesn't compute..
....to that margin. They have instead acted as if they had a landslide victory in 2018 and the fake media being so in the tank for the Dems have not tempered that impulse but has promoted it. This has caused the Dems to show their true selfs to the voters.
If they continue down this path, I don't think it will end well for the Dems come Nov 2020 and now I have three data points (PA12, NC03 and especially NC09) that supports my contention. The Dems have nothing to support the view their actions are working, less than nothing.
