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1/ In the wake of the recent acrimony between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it may be hard to imagine they ever had friendly relations. Yet the two countries were once friends and allies.
2/ They established diplomatic relations in 1929 following the signing of a Saudi-Iranian Friendship Treaty, however there was not much cooperation or advancement in relations until some decades later.
3/ In 1966, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia visited Iran with the aim of further strengthening relationships between both neighboring countries. Shah Pahlavi of Iran reciprocated by paying an official visit to Saudi Arabia and supporting King Faisal’s efforts for Islamic solidarity.
4/ Both countries felt threatened by the spread of pan-Arab nationalism, under the stewardship of Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser. After Israel defeated the Arab states—Egypt, Jordan and Syria—in the Six Day War in 1967, the starting premise of Arab nationalism was fatally undermined.
5/ Iran and Saudi Arabia took the primary responsibility for peace and security in the region once the British announced that they were going to withdraw from the Persian Gulf.
6/ In late 1960s, the Shah sent letters to King Faisal, urging him to modernize. “Please, my brother, modernize. Open up your country. Make the schools mixed. Let women wear miniskirts. Have discos. Be modern. Otherwise I cannot guarantee you will stay on your throne.”
7/ In response, King Faisal wrote, “Your majesty, I appreciate your advice. May I remind you, you are not the Shah of France. You are not in the Elysée. You are in Iran. Your population is 90% Muslim. Please don’t forget that.”
8/ The relations between the two countries started to strain during the 1970s, as Saudi Arabia was concerned by Iran’s closeness to Israel and upgrade of its military technology.
9/ While the Kingdom did not recognize Israel nor have any diplomatic relations with the country, Iran maintained close ties since Israel’s establishment in 1948. They cooperated on “Project Flower,” a joint plan to develop a missile that could carry a nuclear warhead.
10/ Iran also sold Israel oil, when none of the other oil-rich states in the region would do so, and became a major importer of Israeli goods and services. In 1971, Ayatollah Khomeini described Israel as having “penetrated all of Iran's economic, military, and political affairs."
11/ Following the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid sent Ayatollah Khomeini a congratulatory message, promoting “Islamic solidarity” and stating that there were no obstacles that inhibited the cooperation between the two countries.
12/ But rhetoric from Iran became increasingly hostile and threatening during the 1980s as the Saudis backed Saddam Husain’s expansionist action against Iran and a crackdown by Saudi security forces on Iranian-led demonstrators during the 1987 Hajj claimed 400 lives.
13/ In a 1987 public address, Khomeini declared that Mecca was in the hands of “a band of heretics” and that “these vile and ungodly Wahhabis, are like daggers which have always pierced the heart of the Muslims from the back.”
14/ Diplomatic relations between the two countries ended until 1991, when Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati visited Riyadh to meet with King Fahd and propose an Iranian-Gulf Cooperation Council alliance with a mandate for the security of the Persian Gulf.
15/ In February 1998, President Khattami became the first Iranian leader to officially visit Saudi Arabia after the 1979 Revolution. A Comprehensive Co-operation Agreement paved their way to collaborate not only in politics, but also the economy, culture, and sports.
16/ In July 1999, King Fahd urged other Gulf countries to follow Saudi Arabia’s lead and improve their relations with Iran. The development of a common geostrategic approach to regional issues led to the Saudi-Iranian security agreement in April 2001.
17/ In 2005, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran got tense after Ahmadinejad became president, but he still made an official visit to Riyadh in 2007 and returned in 2012 on King Abdullah's invitation to the OIC, sitting next to him in a symbolic gesture.
18/ It was the last official visit by an Iranian leader to Saudi Arabia. The spreading of violence across the region put them at odds in Syria and Iraq, strained relations further and Saudis cut diplomatic ties after an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran in January 2016.
19/ “Do you think we can ever see peaceful relations again?” I ask this question often—to Saudis and non-Saudis alike. Nobody says yes, describing an ancient schism between Sunni and Shia Islam, although dispute is less about religion than about power, resources, and territory.
20/ What strikes me the most is how easily people go back a thousand years to explain the current conflict but are utterly unaware of recent history. Few remember the numerous attempts at diplomacy and that Ahmadinejad and King Abdullah held hands in Riyadh seven years ago.
21/ While some may conclude this goes to show there is no workable solution and things are only going to get worse, the lesson from history is that this is not the first time relations have hit a low point and another attempt at cordial relationship is likely in the years ahead.
22/ I find myself feeling hopeful that Saudi Arabia and Iran can find some new equilibrium in the future which would ultimately strengthen the peace, security, and future of the whole region.
23/ Both Saudi Arabia and Iran turned ultra-religious and conservative together in the late 1970s. I believe they will both modernize together as well with MbS’s 2017 speech as the key pivot point for Saudi Arabia. Iran will follow suit.
24/ Iran faces the same pressures as Saudi Arabia and can no longer exist in the way it has. Over 60% of Iran’s 80 million people are under 30, so they have no memory of the revolution and the views of the young generation about life and the world are different than the elders.
25/ Iran recognizes that it needs to adapt to remain in power. Rouhani said: “We cannot pick a lifestyle and tell two generations after us to live like that.” Despite strict cultural norms, Iran has a pretty active nightlife and the highest rate of nose jobs in the world.
26/ The morality police have been less visible in cities since Rouhani came to power in 2013, and a softer line is being taken on breaches of clothing rules, with an emphasis on “education” rather than detention.
27/ In a speech carried widely on state television, Rohani said: “If our behavior has gotten worse (since 1979), then this revolution is on the wrong path. The fundamental purpose of the revolution is to respect people and solve their problems. Let people live their lives.”
28/ The lifting of US sanctions fostered hope it would be the beginning of a new era, promising more jobs and opportunity. But that is no longer the case. Iran’s unemployment rate is 12%,inflation is running high at 40%, and the currency is down over 75%.
29/ In many ways, these are the same conditions as the 1979 revolution. Thirty years ago, Ayatollah Khomeini proclaimed equity and social justice as the revolution’s main objective. The people today demand the same from the corrupt, theocratic regime.
30/ Though protests are unlikely to change who is in power, they will eventually force a change from within Iran’s political system by the next presidential elections in 2021 and set the stage for renewed efforts at diplomacy with the Saudis.
31/ By 2020, the Saudi-US alliance will probably become tenuous because they get blamed for high oil prices and GOP no longer controls all three branches of government. Congress can veto over arms deals.
32/ This will force the Saudis to re-evaluate their Middle East strategy, especially as they would be fatigued and financially drained by the war in Yemen, and have to face increasing pressure at home to create employment for its young burgeoning population.
33/ Rather than shutting out Iran from the rest of the world, what’s more likely is that the Europeans continue to trade and invest in Iran over the long run. This is a reality the Saudis will have to accept but getting to that point may take more violence and volatility.
34/ Eventually Iran and Saudi Arabia will halt fighting and negotiate a cold peace to deal with matters internally more determined, with an official Saudi invitation to once again strengthen relationships between both neighboring countries. There will be peace.
