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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Two polls that show the effects of the LibDem and Labour stances on Brexit. Yes, my Twitter following is extremely remain-oriented. But in many ways that's the whole point - the LDs were never going to attract Leavers...
That's a net -41% for Labour and a net +60% for the LibDems. Remarkable numbers.
(NOTE: you can bias a Twitter poll, because it depends on the political stance of the people taking it. But you can't "fake" it. The numbers of votes are sufficient to show at least broad strokes the direction of travel caused by the twin policies.)
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Between a quarter and a third of 2015 Labour voters voted Leave in 2016.
Between a third and forty percent of 2015 Tory voters voted Remain.
(Different polls have different figures. But that gives us a ballpark idea.)

Makes both the Tory and Labour Brexit positions a bit daft!
It means in theory, if Brexit is the number one concern for voters, up to two-thirds of Labour voters and forty percent of Tory voters are up for grabs by the LibDems. Even if they only convert a small fraction with their strong/controversial Remain stance, that's a big deal.
Bear in mind, the LibDems could (on paper) end up the largest party without winning any Leave votes at all. None, zero, zip. There are way more than enough Remain votes to put them over the top. I am not suggesting that would happen, but it *could*.
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Has anyone got experience of self-publishing a non fiction book on Twitter with a huge number of endnotes (1,000+). Each is just a URL link (to a source of information backing up a comment or assertion).

I worry how readers and Amazon will respond to a massive block at the end?
Sorry, should have been clearer in the original tweet: self-publishing *on Kindle*. I believe that drastically reduces formatting and other options.
NOTE: this is what the endnotes look like at the moment in the draft text (ignore the red squiggles, they're from spellcheck)
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Where's the lack of democratic legitimacy in the LibDems' Brexit stance? It's in two parts. Both are important!

1) If they *win* a majority in a GE, they will revoke A50 and remain. [As the majority party they get to enact their manifesto. That's how our politics works.]
2) If there's no GE or they don't win a majority in a GE, they will campaign for a 2nd referendum with Remain option, and campaign for Remain in it. If Remain wins, Brexit will be cancelled. [This retest of the will of the people makes revocation legitimate.]
Now, I can understand some people griping that a 33% (or whatever) vote share that delivers a GE majority is less than 52%, but you can't compare a GE to a referendum. Chalk and cheese. Under our current political system, a majority of MPs at a GE *is* democratically legitimate.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Jamie Gascoigne
@JamieGascoigne3
There were 3 big revelations yesterday in UK politics (11/9/19).

With so much going on it’s easy to get distracted by just 1, but I argue these 3 must be considered together and what they add up to (THREAD).

This goes right to the heart of #Brexit and what is really going on.
The following revelations came to light on 11/9/19:
1) Operation #Yellowhammer document was published
2) Currency speculation with the Pound being shorted post 31st Oct, betting on Brexit happening on schedule and Sterling crashing.
3) Three judges ruled #Prorogation unlawful.
1) Operation #Yellowhammer document was published.

See excellent commentary from @lewis_goodall. Clearly #brexit by the governments own analysis would be deeply damaging in many ways. And there is wide suspicion this isn’t the worst case scenario.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1171857…
Read 8 tweets
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tony nog #Revoker
@tony_nog
Twitter break, quick thread
1) need to take a break from Twitter for real life stuff, and this seems as good a time as any

FWIW I think we are in a better place than we were a few weeks ago, even with the parliament shut down,so here's some thoughts before I go
#Brexit
2) Johnson's efforts to bounce us out on no deal have been well and truly blocked. The snap GE isn't going to happen, he's been embarrassed, and despite his bluster he will be forced to obey the law.

There is growing disquiet in the Tory ranks (though shockingly, not enough)
3) ...and in fact the number of 1 nation Tories prepared to keep their heads down is frankly disgusting, but there you go, perhaps there's a plan for tactical resignations
Read 19 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
Remain already has a majority without any support from Corbyn

Does anyone really think we'd be doing #Brexit, much less no deal Brexit, if Labour had campaigned unequivocally for Remain with a charasmatic, committed leader these past 2 years?

This is the real betrayal 1/
Labour has sat on the fence, following rather than leading on #Brexit whilst nurturing & indulging a brexiter at the helm

So every single Labour MP has been neutered because the follow on question to "Tory Brexit is bad" is always "well, what would you do?"

"err...well....." 2/
A handful of times we've seen Labour MPs say "#Brexit is just wrong, bad for the country" before being slapped down by Central commmand

The Labour Brexit plan just gets laughed at because it's such a fudge

Thus Labour have contributed precisely nothing in TV debates on this 3/
Read 4 tweets
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Shaun Masterton
@Notretsam
Been holding off on posting this #Thread regarding the #LocalElection2019 going on in England and Northern Ireland, but the results are fascinating to me here in Scotland for sure. There is a clear #RemainBacklash going on and this is HUGE, shall go into more detail on why.
Clearly, the #LocalElections2019 is one of the biggest elections in history for the Lib Dems and the biggest night for the Green Party, there is been a massive shift towards these two parties over the usual Tories and Labour, but why is that? Clearly, #Brexit is a big part of why
How the Tories and Labour have handled #Brexit is nothing short of embarrassing, both these parties have refused to support a #PeoplesVote and give us a second say on leaving the EU. Yet Lib Dems and Green Party have been consistent since the get-go as remain parties.
Read 11 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
Labour MPs, had a choice on #Brexit

They could have consistently said "yes, Leave won - but the choice before us now is prosperity or sovereignty, a painful or pointless Brexit. What do we choose?"

They didn't, from Corbyn down they pretended there was a magic alternative
Corbyn's Labour was never straight with the electorate. Being sold a pup by Tories should be natural campaign ground for Labour but because of cowardice and/or Corbyn's euroscepticism Labour became part of the #Brexit problem, the big lie

Of course leavers are angry. They've been told for 2 years by both sides that a great #Brexit is acheivable if only we had the right negototiating team in place.

The SNP was honest, so was PV the LDs and now ChangeUK - #Brexit couldn't work

Read 8 tweets
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Nigel Marriott
@MarriottNigel
How can Corbyn get into Downing St at the next election if one comes soon? Here is my thread looking at what needs to change from the 2017 #GeneralElection when #Labour won 262 seats. /1
To become the largest party, Labour needs to gain around 30 seats. It so happens that there are 29 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 3 pts behind the incumbent. 21 are held by the #CONSERVATIVES, 7 by the SNP, 1 by #plaidcymru. /2
To get a working majority, Labour needs to gain 61 seats given Sinn Fein don't take their seats. It so happens there are 62 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 7 pts behind the incumbent. 45 are held by the Conservatives, 16 by the SNP, 1 by Plaid Cymru /3
Read 19 tweets

Trending hashtags

#RevokeArticle50 #Labour #brexit #LibDems #Brexit #GFA #Remain #Milne #Ireland #Warrington #PeoplesVote #EuropeanElections #3b #Tories #BBCqt #Yellowhammer #11a #bbcqt #BrexitParty #Tory #9a #BrexitMarch #Prorogation #remain #MyBallsOnAPlate
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