Thread by @tony_nog

Twitter break, quick thread
1) need to take a break from Twitter for real life stuff, and this seems as good a time as any

FWIW I think we are in a better place than we were a few weeks ago, even with the parliament shut down,so here's some thoughts before I go
#Brexit

2) Johnson's efforts to bounce us out on no deal have been well and truly blocked. The snap GE isn't going to happen, he's been embarrassed, and despite his bluster he will be forced to obey the law.

There is growing disquiet in the Tory ranks (though shockingly, not enough)

3) ...and in fact the number of 1 nation Tories prepared to keep their heads down is frankly disgusting, but there you go, perhaps there's a plan for tactical resignations

4) the key outcome is that Johnson is now trapped in a corner of his own painting.

He cannot legally leave with no deal on October 31st - so he needs a deal

But he cannot easily complain that his negotiating hand has been weakened whilst still saying he's negotiating one

5) similarly, any deal will send the ERG into a melt down, freak out the DUP & strengthen (weaken)Farage's hand

This is bizarrely a good thing. Farage cannot get into a pact with a Johnson looking for a deal, therefore his 14% of the vote reduces Johnson's chance for a majority

6) why strengthen/weaken Farage? Because Farage knows his vote share is useless in a GE - it's only of value when he can give it to Johnson for influence. And he can't give it to a pro deal Tory party

7) So Johnson is caught between the illegality of a no deal and the toxicity of a deal with his base and supporting MPs

And with no majority or way of forcing an election

8) the key to the next few weeks is how the opposition approaches this

And this is really my only worry, because we stand or fall as remainers on how the opposition parties, present their message

9) there is plenty of strong messaging available:
"He sacks 21 MPs and then complains about losing control?"
"He promised a deal, let him get one"
"Shutting down parliament to protect democracy?" and so on

10) but the opposition really need to get on the central con
"How can voters make a choice if he's promising a deal AND no deal?
That's like telling half your voters on Facebook you'll invest £20b in the NHS and half that you'll sell it

It's not democracy when you give 2 answers

11) the opposition cannot allow Johnson to go into an election promising a deal and no deal, they must show this up as fraudulent and dishonest

12) 2 final thoughts

Labour policy on Brexit is very honourable but can easily be made to look ridiculous and laughable

They need to ditch it

And Corbyn remains an election liability, he just is

13) Revoke as a clear GE platform is strong, vote for us we'll make it stop seeks a new mandate and cannot be called undemocratic

Parties who don't adopt this (or any clear leave/remain line) will suffer in a GE

Good luck, stay strong, see you in a few weeks!
End/

Ps) apologies, I said I was going away (and I am) but one final point for opposition MPs and representatives

The brexiters are not there to debate you
They are not interested in the truth
They don't care about making a point

Ps 1) They appear only to spread noise, interrupt you, talk over you and shut you down, to prevent you making an argument

Please learn this and do better

Simple messages
Make people laugh at the absurdity of #Brexit
Do your preparation, know your lines, say them

Ps 2) if you are asked a question, make the point you want to land then answer

Don't repeat their lines back. If they say "surrender bill", don't say "it's *not" a surrender bill" say something like "why are you afraid of parliament voting on no deal?"

Ps 3) finally, be assertive. Please don't roll your eyes, look shocked or offended, honestly I don't think anyone is interested unfortunately.

Just talk over them, calmly but firmly, with lines that are easy to hear and absorb.

Ps 4) being "rude" back is not for everyone, but if you can't be calm but assertive and prepared to close down your oponent in turn, please don't go on.

It's a bearpit, not a debate. You need to land 2 or 3 messages, at least 1 of which makes Johnson look ridiculous

Ps 5) but anti brexiters need to learn over the next few weeks, these are not debates on facts, they are intended to shut you down and drown you out.

See last example of @rafaelbehr on Politics Live to see how it's done. Calm, clear, but assertive, cutting across the rubbish