Thread by @adam_ni

Over the last few weeks, I have been asked repeatedly what we should expect from China's 70th-anniversary parade on Oct 1. Here I want to talk about this occasion against broader trends instead of only focusing on glitzy weapons.

THREAD (w/ the more interesting bits at the end)

Let’s get the weapons out the way first…

@AntoineBondaz & Stéphane Delory at @FRS_org have done a great job at analysing satellite images for clues on the new weapons that would be unveiled:

https://twitter.com/AntoineBondaz/status/1176521928393330688?s=20

Based on these images, the highlights will be advanced missiles and UAVs, including the DF-41 next-gen ICBM, DF-17, a launcher for the DF-ZF hypersonic glider, the JL-2 SLBM, and a range of new drones.

For me there are three key takeaways:

1) China’s nuclear modernisation is making substantial progress, both quantitatively and qualitatively. , China’s nuclear force is becoming more mobile, resilient, reliable, technologically advanced, and diversified (in terms of...

...missile systems, as well as moving away from a sole reliance on land-based nuclear forces). This makes China’s nuclear forces more secure against a first-strike, thus adding to the credibility of its nuclear deterrent by ensuring a second-strike retaliatory capability.

2) China’s growing conventional military capability, inc missiles, information forces, & air/naval power is increasingly making it hard for the US to sustain its military edge in regional scenarios.

The US military is still far more advanced than the PLA, but the PLA is closing the gap across the spectrum of capabilities and eroding the US military advantage in Asia. Also, US forces are spread across the globe whereas China can focus its military in its neighbourhood.

What this means is that the conventional balance in military power, in relative terms, is tipping towards China. Hence, the PLA is more likely to deter the US from using force in regional scenarios, such as with respect to Taiwan and the South China Sea.

3) parade will focus on showcasing domestic manufactured weaponry. Amid the trade war and rising technological competition between China and the US, Beijing wants to send the message that it is now a formidable technological power with the scientific and industrial foundations...

to support its ambition of creating a world-class military. In the past, much of China’s advanced military equipment came from abroad. Increasingly, these advanced systems are developed and manufactured in China (some with technology acquired via covert means).

Okay, let’s move on to other important stuff: CCP legitimacy, challenges, & the storm looming on the horizon.

70th anniversary is a very important occasion, especially given the domestic & international context in which this occasion is celebrated.

Domestically, Beijing faces formidable economic challenges, including intractable structural issues. And it faces the colossal task of ensuring that the expectations of the people for a better life are satisfied. After all, this is a key pillar of CCP’s legitimacy.

Xi at 19th Party Congress stated that the principal contradiction facing Chinese society has evolved from “the ever-growing material/cultural needs of the people & backward social production" to “unbalanced & inadequate development & people's ever-growing needs for a better life”

This is not ideological mumbo jumbo. Principal contradiction refers, in Marxist-Leninist parlance, to what the party should be preoccupied with as its top priority. Essentially, the CCP is admitting that in order to keep power, it needs to keep the people happy.

To me, the party is a tired hamster on the wheel of material progress. Can it keep running forever without changing the game?

At the elite politics level, we are likely to see a further sidelining of the role of Deng, Jiang and Hu in building modern China. We will see a further sanitisation of the PRC history to suit Xi; drawing a straight line from Mao to Xi - from revolutionary beginnings to...

the threshold of national rejuvenation. This emphasis is not new. The party has already rewritten the history of the reform era. History is consistently been examined, struggled over, and rewritten in the People’s Republic. Indeed, on October 1, this will be on full display w/ ..

...all the accompanying symbols and rituals of Xi’s new era.

Beyond mainland China, the CCP is facing, what essentially amounts to, an open rebellion in Hong Kong; a recalcitrant Taiwan; and an international environment that is decisively less hospitable.

US-China competition is for the long term; the trade war is just a symptom of deeper trends. Other regional countries, such as Australia, Japan and India are also anxious about China’s power and are adjusting their strategy to better protect their interests

The story of the 70th anniversary that the CCP wants to tell is a pretty simple one: over the last 70 years since the establishment of the PRC, CCP has led the Chinese people to rise and stand up; today China is more powerful than any time in recent history; and under Xi...

...China is finally on the threshold of achieving national rejuvenation; the road ahead will be difficult, but the time for greatness is imminent.

This story pandas to nationalism, which has been on full display, most palpably in the unfolding crisis in Hong Kong.

But beneath the facade of confidence, unity and strength, the party-state is paranoid about the accumulating political risks, social tensions and frustrations, and the myriad of domestic and international challenges.

Xi has warned the party of “black swans” & “grey rhinos”; launched a political education campaign for party/military officials; & called on the party to steel itself for protracted “struggles”. These are not signs of confidence. CCP perceives itself to be under assault.

On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the PRC’s founding, shadows loom large over China. Its political order, hybrid economy & social stability are all more brittle than one may assume. For all we know, the fuse may or may not have already been lit.

Thx for reading.

END