Brazil votes for President today. The big question is whether or not extreme-right candidate Bolsonaro can win in the first round, or if we will have a run-off in three weeks. Winning today looks unlikely for him. He'd need a big last-minute jump in support. But not impossible.
If we have a run-off in Brazil (like usual) it's a new ball game. Elections aren't like in US that start years in advance. Center-left candidate Haddad barely campaigned, and never debated Bolsonaro. A quarter of voters were undecided in the last poll. But B is clear front-runner
(Don't hold me to this but yesterday I said something like, I think Bolsonaro has a 5-10% chance of winning today, and a 60-70% chance of winning in the second round - but I really do think a lot could happen over three weeks. That's a long time here.)
The Congressional elections today are also extremely important. Here's @SamCowie84 explaining why and how the hard right is likely to be strengthened (and most of the corrupt establishment players will be sticking around):
aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/w…
aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/w…
And here's something I wrote explaining that, regardless of political mood and what voters want, the very way Congressional elections are held here is a serious problem in the first place.
Boulos from left PSOL is right here. For those that only want to keep Bolsonaro out, there is no need to vote "strategically." Any vote not for him is a vote for a 2nd round. Brazilians can vote for who they support, or who they want in that round.
However. There are indications that center-left Ciro Gomes, currently polling in third place, would have a better chance than Haddad of beating Bolsonaro in the second round, so some say they will vote strategically for Ciro for this reason. He's 10 points behind Haddad now. 
(I'm not trying to be prescriptive, I'm describing the conversations I've had with voters.) Some just want Bolso, obviously. Others are just voting for who they like most now, then will vote for the anti-Bolso candidate. Others say they're watching polls and voting strategically.
For the record, I think Bolsonaro is extremely dangerous. In many ways, I think he could be more extreme than Duterte. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. It can definitely happen. He's not from Mars. Brazil had men like him in charge not long ago.
⏫⏫ by the way that last embedded tweet is the beginning of a thread that explains a lot about who Bolsonaro is and where he comes from
Just spoke to a gas station worker, makes just barely enough to live and voted twice for Lula. Voting Bolsonaro because he is against "the program to pay criminals in prison more than I make" (this does not exist, obviously). He says everyone knows about it- "check the internet."
Just spoke to a rich white liberal Brazilian *acupuncturist* (yep) who supports Bolsonaro. She doesn't want guns legalized and is strongly pro-LGBT. Doesn't care he's the exact opposite because she hopes (that is, expects) he won't be able to get anything passed. Cool cool cool
(I'm obviously not posting every interview I did today or trying to be representative of the whole country, those are just some anecdotes and things I thought were expressive of the most *2018* elements of this election, and the weirder, more striking aspects of Bolsonarismo)
I mostly don't like comparing Bolsonaro to Trump (their backgrounds and political projects are very different) - but I was repeatedly reminded of my country by one thing today. An almost giddy desire to tell political elites and cultural gatekeepers (including media) to fuck off
And there we go. 96% counted. There will be a run-off in 3 weeks between extreme-right Bolsonaro and Workers Party Haddad. I think it is extremely likely this means something very bad for Brazil. Probably already does. But the 2nd round will happen, and things will happen in it.
