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In yesterday's post about the EU perception of Brexit I remarked that many view 'no deal' as an overtly hostile act by the UK. The reactions to this point and b/c Leavers continue to tout 'no deal' as something useful show that 'no deal' the EU perspective needs explaining.1/
I will drill down to the present later on, but just the genesis of the 'ejector seat' in art. 50 when that was negotiated was this: EU MS did not trust the UK to abuse art. 50 to extract membership concession through threatening to leave. 2/
UK has many privileges in the EU - much to the irritation of France and Southern Europe - everyone was wary of the clever British civil service leveraging more pounds of flesh from the rest of us. Secondly a leaving MS endlessly negotiating could block EU processes. 3/
As 'no deal' was seen as a RISK for the leaver AND the EU, it was seen as the method to keep everyone honest. UK respected this in the timing of the Art. 50 trigger that made the process conveniently paced with EU budget/EU elections/new Commission.4/
When negotiations started the EU considered that a no deal outcome would be a failure of diplomacy. 5/
As things got underway it became apparent to EU Brexit coordinators that they could negotiate like pros but there was no guarantee that anything could pass muster in Westminster. Suddenly a no deal DISASTER loomed as an unwanted default outcome. 6/
Here the EU underestimated that Leavers had doubled down on no deal as project FEAR. With hordes of interests beating a path to their door out of concern for (partial) no deal issues EU negotiators got to be more cautious. 7/
When I came round with yet another - literally life threatening - consequence of Brexit some negotiators expressed their frustration to me that 'Its always us in the EU who have to take steps to avoid this stuff. UK chose to leave - they should do more.' 8/
By mid'18 there was irritation about the flying squad of the Foreign Office visiting MS capitals undermining the process. No deal mitigation was going to be dealt with solely by EU uni-lateral measures. Its at this stage that in EU perspective no deal evolved into a THREAT.9/
@CoppetainPU and @DmitryOpines have excellent learned threads about why threatening (no deal) doesnt work in a negotiation. Originally however it was a little comical with May seeming to put a gun to her head and threatening to splatter us with gore. 10/
The consequences of dumping 40 years of cooperation without so much as a by your leave are so dire that noone - even in early '19 thought that serious persons could consider it an acceptable outcome. 11/
Inured as we are from the emotive part of Brexit the EU still found it hard to believe that 'WTO is the way to go' was anything more than jingoism but doubt crept in. PPL so close minded to practical realities could very well harm us in the EU just out of spite. 12/
The absurd hostility of Brexiters to anything EU became a concern. Uni-lateral preparations for no deal shifted up a gear as of 12/2018 - this is no secret the Commission even stated publicly that it would shift focus from negotiating to Brexit preparedness. 13/
Damage from no deal (in fact damage from Brexit) is impossible to avoid under any circumstances. Just from my limited experience of the pair of really unacceptable outcomes I worked on, I am confident as much has been done as possible. 14/
Meaningful votes came and went and suddenly we had Johnson & Co developing no deal from threat into (what they think is) a WEAPON. Barclay went round to rough up the Spanish and the Irish were likewise the target of bullying. 15/
Was it bemusement, sadness or righteous anger that EU negotiators felt? I dont know. When you have given opportunity to mitigate damage in the WA, pol. decl. and go over the same ground with new faces over and over it must be odd to find no deal brandished in your face.16/
The EU attitude (as well as public opinion) hardened at this point. When the EU signed as guarantor of the GFA it was to be strong when this kind of behaviour occurred. That Leave doesn't get this shows they don't understand the EU. 17/
So ppl now view 'no deal' as a HOSTILE MOVE by the UK even-though paradoxically the latter is harmed more. So RISK->DISASTER->THREAT->(WEAPON)->HOSTILE FOREIGN POWER ACT. How 'no deal' evolved in EU perceptions. 18/
As an aside is the myth that Poland or Hungary will do the dirty work. For Poland EU support in Ukraine is more important than Brexit. PL and HU are nationalist governments (i.e. their interest 1st) that lose more from betraying the EU than UK could compensate them for. 19/
To conclude, the EU will protect its citizens.
As the PM managed to make the words 'our friends in Europe' sound sinister you can rest assured plans have been made. I repeat my conjecture that a no deal plan to support Ireland by the EU exists. /end
As the PM managed to make the words 'our friends in Europe' sound sinister you can rest assured plans have been made. I repeat my conjecture that a no deal plan to support Ireland by the EU exists. /end
