Thread by @JuliusWaller

My previous thread about Brexit from the EU perspective turned out to be so correct I was almost minded not write another as everything I shared became main stream the week after. The only open item is the inevitable request for an extension. 1/

Brexit is very multi-faceted and as the EU hasnt received any serious proposals - in fact what was received was worse than expected - it seems worthwhile to run past a couple of things that are routinely misrepresented in the British press or downright under-reported. 2/

Why are promises from UK not trusted? @DmitryOpines will tell you that even amongst friends you want a cast-iron text. Good agreements make good friends.
As I am more on the political side of negotiations, it should be added that over the years UK lost credibility.3/

In Mrs. Thatcher's time - when I started working in Brussels - the UK Rep was the go to place. It was the centre of all agreements and British diplomacy in Europe reigned supreme. A key ingredient was that promises were delivered on when made. 4/

As governments weakened successively on EU matters, this trust degraded. This percolated right down to working levels so that when difficult compromises were reached it happened that the Italians and/or French would tell me UK would need to vote first as they didnt trust them.5/

What cemented this distrust is that we can read. Nary a single Brexiter has said anything to reassure us that we can rely on their good intentions. The Irish never failed to warn of English shenanigans. One is convinced that Brexit could only be a success if we are cheated.6/

The latest spin is that a text will be forthcoming after the conservative party conference. This is not credible, if your text is unable to stand the scrutiny of a single party conference you cannot be trusted to deliver on it. Hence concessions cant be made to facilitate it. 7/

Another spin - apparently believed by the wanna be Tony Soprano Stephen Barclay is that EU will negotiate no deal. It wont - in all EU communication this has been crystal clear to EU businesses and citizens. Uni-lateral measures will be taken to protect EU interests. 8/

I admit to having been sceptical in this regard before, but the signs are very ominous the EU will not play Mr. Nice Guy in the event of no deal. On the one hand it has the means as the bigger party to deflect as much of the pain as possible on the UK. 9/

Sadly the originally friendly tone towards British EU civil servants and UK citizens in the EU has hardened considerably. Gone are the kind words of Juncker post referendum that the British EU fonctionnaires are colleagues and friends. 10/

Quite harsh communication has been circulated announcing in effect demotions (no promotion) and reduction of British subjects in the administration to comply with rules on nationality. In MS likewise I had expected leniency towards British citizens. 11/

My inlaws being English and all of us living in no less than four MS in total give me a good view of this. The message is 'prepare to be assimilated' (i.e. change nationality) or you will face very unpleasant consequences. Mrs. May hostile environment talk is much to blame. 12/

This is but the thin end of the wedge if no deal occurs, which many consider an overtly hostile act by the UK against all of the EU nations. Others have circulated graphs with the high rate of support for the EU's firm stance among citizens. 13/

Euro-sceptic continental movements cannot (because not in power) but also will not come to UK's aide. The French FN is strongly driven by anti-capitalist pro-labour policies. Same with Wilders' PVV in NL. AfD's Gauland is the only one actively promoting concessions to the UK. 14/

In Eastern Europe the 'hostile environment' was experienced as humiliating. They dont believe a word of the British about being their 'friends in Europe'. The EU politicians in power realise that cohesion is better than division when faced with a hostile foreign power.15/

Smaller EU countries watch that Ireland isnt thrown under the bus. None of the MS have a civil service capable of delivering a Brexit bi-lateral negotiation. For decades this knowledge has been centralised with the excellent people at the Commission. 16/

An extension until 31/1 is painless for the EU. It is beyond that it gets tricky. At the moment it looks like the nominal majority of Leave wants either a unicorn or No Deal, neither of which can pass. So the wisest move is to 'surrender' the initiative to the UK. 17/

EU negotiators are not emotional. If the deal is good they will close it - this kind of process is a strength of the EU. Creating the CU, the Internal Market, the Euro - the Commission was originally copy pasted from the French Plan Commission, a project mgt organisation. 18/

The British Civil Service deserves to be congratulated for punching above its weight but it was given an impossible task: delivering a Brexit that doesn't exist. No amount of Promethean efforts by the PM will change this, the WA is what it is. 19/

All of this may sound dire but to quote the man Remain loves to hate: 'Its a walk in the park.' Leave is careening down a dead end where it will find neither unicorn nor no-deal. Instead what we are seeing is the painful reversal process of a referendum won on false grounds./end