Thread by @BainesCutler

In a free society debating ideology is legitimate, but pretending that VAT on fees will raise money, when it will actually cost money, is not. Please RT widely within your schools, work colleagues, friends & families so that we are all better informed

And the chaos wouldn’t just be for @ISC_schools children. Everyones kids would be shunted around into larger classes, with budgets stretched yet further & disruption to catchment areas, 1st choice preferences, house prices near top schools, loads more tutoring......

But most of all what about children? Isn’t this all supposed to be about them? 135000 will face significant upheaval with education, friendships & lives overturned, often at key stages. The ideology of a few, stuck in the 1960’s, will hurt the many @PSPReform

There is 1 person employed for every 3 pupils. 135000 leavers = 45000 job losses. 18000 are teachers but the rest are cleaners, groundsmen, secretaries, dinner ladies etc who may find it much harder to get a new job. VAT will hurt them the most

135000 leavers need new classrooms, schools. Per Kreston (acads specialists) capex reqd is £10k/pupil. Total of £1.35bn needed over 5 yrs =£268m pa. Added to £148m pa cost the VAT policy will cost UK taxpayers £416m pa

6/10b 135000 leavers costing £6310/pupil will cost govt £850m pa. So the VAT tax take which started at £1.6bn, reduced by £400m and £498m (below) in fact now costs the taxpayer £148m pa. And that’s before we think about new schools and classrooms

It would cost the state £6310 to educate each leaver. This is a little more than the £5k average usually quoted but this is because @ISC_schools have a higher % of senior/6th form children & are weighted much more to London/SE (most commentators miss this)

If 135000 pupils leave, VAT of £498m which they would have paid vanishes. VAT tax take which started at £1.6bn and which reduced by £400m (below) now falls to £702m. And that’s before we even think about educating 135000 new kids in the state sector

5% more (26500) pupils would choose/have to leave since tho’ the parents could afford VAT their school of choice had closed or its offering had been cut back. After 5 yrs 25% of the sector 135000 kids would leave, not be replaced & would need educating by the state

Based on research in 3/10a if VAT was levied, 11% of pupils (57000) would leave ASAP as fees were simply not affordable however much parents juggled their finances. 51000 more would leave over the next 4 yrs as they reached the end of the next key stage

@ISC_schools parents are far more varied than the media implies. Some are indeed rich but many are not. 8% of pupils-50000 are on means tested bursaries and over 1/3 get some sort of fee support. This costs schools £1bn pa but this wouldn’t be affordable with VAT

The only way to estimate dropoff is to know about @ISC_schools finances and the parents who send children to them @BainesCutler has surveyed school finance for 25 yrs and done over 100 parental earnings affordability surveys No one else has this detail

Schools will be able to reclaim input VAT which they cant now. So the stated £1.6bn tax take falls by £400m the moment it’s levied. Richer schools can reclaim more due to more capex. So this is a regressive tax as it hurts poorer schools/parents more

Labour’s 2017 manifesto/policy says it will raise £1.6bn VAT. The sector’s fee income is £8bn so raising £1.6bn assumes despite fees being 20% higher NO PUPILS AT ALL WILL LEAVE. Whatever the real drop off this is clearly very naive economics

VAT in 10 Tweets

Attached are 10 tweets to explain how VAT works and why Labour’s policy of VAT on school fees would be so damaging to the UK’s schools and children. VAT might seem (& is!) boring but we now need to understand it. Please read and RT so we are all better informed