Thread by @Trinhnomics

Urgh, good morning, the air is so bad outside right now in Hong Kong. Anyway, Asian economic data is not great either - both Japan and South Korea have industrial production contracting both on a mom & yoy basis. Korea cyclical leading contracted too! Vietnam retail sale bounced!

PMI day btw! China manufacturing is expected to contract still at 49.6 (notice how it just hovers around 50 vs Germany's); Services are expected to edged higher at 53.9 from 53.8. Not sure about this consensus forecast of a nudge better 😬

After today, China will be OFF for the rest of the week. From the look of the pollution outside, I wonder if factories are still open because my throat/lungs are feeling the tiny little particles. Urgh. So glad to be at work breathing filtered air!!!

View from desk 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 By that I mean view of pollution. Prolly a good day for those air purifier people but bad for everyone!!! Talk about negative externality of growth impacting the air we breath! Urgh...

The state manufacturing PMI showed a bounce but still contracting at 49.8. Services slowed to 53.7 from 53.8 and composite rose marginally to 53.1 from 53.

Meaning, it is likely that IP'll rise in September but other factors still weak like investment, retail sales & exports.

China Caixin manufacturing PMI is off the chart strong rising to 51.4 from 50.4. Pollution is a pretty good proxy for manufacturing activity 🤷🏻‍♀️

离谱!!!! Manufacturing is off the chart!!!!!!!!!!! Look at that grey line vs the still in contraction of the state manu PMI 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Here is the presser by Markit & frankly I don't understand this off the chart # & the divergence w/ the state manufacturing one because somehow new orders are up but exports are DOWN! 🤷🏻‍♀️

Meanwhile, Vietnam's Q3 GDP is also OFF THE CHART (Ra khỏi biểu đồ!!! Quá cao 🥳) rising 7.3% YoY in Q3 (yah, somehow got GDP for Q3 before the quarter is over🤷🏻‍♀️). Q2 is revised UPWARD! Exports off the chart! Imports off the chart! Retails high!

Growth engine in high gear!👇🏻