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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Urgh, good morning, the air is so bad outside right now in Hong Kong. Anyway, Asian economic data is not great either - both Japan and South Korea have industrial production contracting both on a mom & yoy basis. Korea cyclical leading contracted too! Vietnam retail sale bounced!
PMI day btw! China manufacturing is expected to contract still at 49.6 (notice how it just hovers around 50 vs Germany's); Services are expected to edged higher at 53.9 from 53.8. Not sure about this consensus forecast of a nudge better 😬
After today, China will be OFF for the rest of the week. From the look of the pollution outside, I wonder if factories are still open because my throat/lungs are feeling the tiny little particles. Urgh. So glad to be at work breathing filtered air!!!
View from desk 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 By that I mean view of pollution. Prolly a good day for those air purifier people but bad for everyone!!! Talk about negative externality of growth impacting the air we breath! Urgh...
The state manufacturing PMI showed a bounce but still contracting at 49.8. Services slowed to 53.7 from 53.8 and composite rose marginally to 53.1 from 53.

Meaning, it is likely that IP'll rise in September but other factors still weak like investment, retail sales & exports.
China Caixin manufacturing PMI is off the chart strong rising to 51.4 from 50.4. Pollution is a pretty good proxy for manufacturing activity 🤷🏻‍♀️
离谱!!!! Manufacturing is off the chart!!!!!!!!!!! Look at that grey line vs the still in contraction of the state manu PMI 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Here is the presser by Markit & frankly I don't understand this off the chart # & the divergence w/ the state manufacturing one because somehow new orders are up but exports are DOWN! 🤷🏻‍♀️
Meanwhile, Vietnam's Q3 GDP is also OFF THE CHART (Ra khỏi biểu đồ!!! Quá cao 🥳) rising 7.3% YoY in Q3 (yah, somehow got GDP for Q3 before the quarter is over🤷🏻‍♀️). Q2 is revised UPWARD! Exports off the chart! Imports off the chart! Retails high!

Growth engine in high gear!👇🏻
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
From end 2012 to Q1 2019 (7yrs), China debt to GDP ratio rose 63.2% to 259.4% of GDP (meaning at end 2012 it was less than 200% of GDP). Unless that 63.2% credit/gdp was into productive investment that raises future productivity, the incremental capital to output (ICOR)worsening
The juxtaposition to China rapid growth of debt is the Eurozone deleveraging (credit/gdp ratio FALLING). Australia, Thailand, Malaysia & India have all deleveraged.

Indonesia capital market remains undeveloped & needs to deepen. Smallest debt to GDP ratio in Asia 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻.
How do u deleverage? Well, several ways but ultimately your DEBT has to rise LESS than your OUTPUT.

DEBT/GDP = ratio & that ratio has to fall.

If ur output (GDP) falls, then your debt growth has to fall FASTER! That is how you deleverage. How u do so is up to u. NIRP is 1 way
Read 24 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Want to see some photos of Hong Kong on a Sunday - it is quieter & rather a pleasant stroll.

I live in mid-levels so I descend down to what people call SoHo or South Hollywood Road - Old people sell goods they scavenge on this street 👇🏻
If u are unskilled & worked menial waves in Hong Kong during the manufacturing stage, retirement is hard here - social security is just ~1300 HKD or USD 200 so u do random gigs to get extra bucks. A huge social challenge in Asia - how to silver gracefully
This tea shop is one of my favs. The building is rather nice & I hope it doesn’t get demolished. I often stop by to get the bitter Chinese tea or the 5-flower sweet variety. They sell sugarcane juice there 👇🏻
Read 15 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
This is a big deal that China didn't get included. Malaysia was very worried about what this inclusion would mean for their weight & push reforms (usually if a country is included then others' weight would decline like MSCI where China's higher share is at the expense of Korea)
Malaysia is on the watchlist for EJECTION of the index & FTSE says Malaysia needs to do more to widen market access. BNM announced additional measures to give more flexibility to foreign investors to trade in the ringgit, & for resident businesses to manage hedging of FX.
Malaysia has the most foreign bond participation (no original sin as they invest in ringgit). China exclusion is key in that China needs capital inflows at the moment & reflects investors' demand for criteria to be met for inclusion.

This takes us to India - reforms needed too!
Read 5 tweets

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