Thread by @rammedury

1. Time to correct a narrative that is being built that the economy has tanked in India and that the government is making knee jerk and ineffective measures.

Firstly, is the market, especially rural economy slowing down majorly? @dmuthuk @contrarianEPS @monikahalan

2. Look for proxy numbers.

Bollywood set record sales of Rs700 crores in the movie box office in September. moneycontrol.com/news/trends/en…

3. "Jobs are gone" crib.

Have not seen any jobless person in my personal network, or around. There is a huge increase in the gig economy and a large chunk of jobs have moved on to the likes of @Uber @olacabs @urbanclap @rapidobikeapp @swiggy_in etc.

4. Huge construction of both residential and commercial buildings is happening in the areas of Hyderabad that i live and work in. Why would people "invest in their future", if they aren't confident?

Yes, real estate prices are zooming, but that is the pt. More in a later thread

5. Yes, auto industry is degrowing and stuck. Apparently #Millennials aren't buying too many new cars as per @anandmahindra and @nsitharaman . But look closely for non-auto economic activity. Tractor sellers are seeing huge jump in volumes in Sep 2019. See Escorts volumes go up.

6. Mahindra & Mahindra reported huge jump in Month on Month tractor sales.

"The company's tractor sales surged 149.78% to 37,011 units in September 2019 as against 14,817 units in August 2019"

"Domestic tractor sales were unchanged YoY"

business-standard.com/article/news-c…

7. Above data shows that rural activity is perking up. Also agreed by Aditya Puri of @HDFC_Bank

8. What about the rest of the auto industry? My view is that tougher pollution norms and the impending electric revolution is pushing the industry into a gut wrenching transformation similar to what the Internal Combustion Engine caused more than a century ago.

Change is good.

9. Why is the GDP growth so low then? I do not have an immediate answer here except to say that the economy moves in cycles. Massive control of bank NPAs and tightening of the IBC code (bankruptcy) has tightened supply of credit. May be the cleanup is causing a temporary slowdown

10. One of the regrets of @PMOIndia @narendramodi mentioned in 2018, is that when they took over in 2014, they did not publish the extent of rot in the system. This time in 2019 the cleanup seems to have started in real earnest.

financialexpress.com/india-news/whi…

11. The benefits will be visible in a few quarters or may be even 2-3 years. We already saw the corporate tax cut happen; a bold and supply stimulation move. The govt already showed its resolve with #Article370

We may expect a demand side move also with a new Direct Tax Code.

3.1 Nominal GDP growth between 2014-2019 of Rs 78 lakh crore - a CAGR of 10.9 percent cant happen without jobs

Data on new subscribers in EPFO, NPS & ESIC suggests new jobs
yourstory.com/2019/08/indepe…

Number of new tax paying professionals adds to this.
pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintR…

3.2 Beside many companies that are below 20 in size are not reflecting new jobs per se. And if the jobs pay about Rs 5 lakhs or below that also doesn't get reflected.

Self employed persons is another statistic that may not be captured easily. One has to look at Mudra loans etc.

@Uber @Olacabs @urbanclap @rapidobikeapp @swiggy_in 3.1 Nominal GDP growth between 2014-2019 of Rs 78 lakh crore - a CAGR of 10.9 percent cant happen without jobs

Data on new subscribers in EPFO, NPS & ESIC suggests new jobs
yourstory.com/2019/08/indepe…

Number of new tax paying professionals adds to this.
pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintR…