Can BJ's plan produce a deal on Brexit? A thread. Summary: there won't be a deal by 19.10 because the plan doesn't work for the EU. And domestic politics won't allow BJ to modify the plan in ways that would work for the EU. /1 @CER_EU
Is the plan a serious attempt at a deal or is BJ pretending to want a deal, to avoid blame in the event that talks break down? In Manchester I spoke to some ministers who really want a deal and at least one who certainly did not. /2
But I think BJ and most of his ministers want a deal, as it would allow them to deliver Brexit on schedule and thus see off the Brexit Party threat. Of course they also think about the blame game. /3
The parliamentary arithmetic for BJ's plan might work. DUP, ERG, many pro-EU rebel Tories and a few Labour MPs would vote for such a deal (the Labour MPs' support being conditional on the EU backing the deal). /4
BJ's problem is that the EU will not support his plan. The creation of a new customs frontier between the 2 parts of Ireland - even if controls happen away from the border - is unacceptable. It would damage economic ties across the island. /5
The arrival of controls away from the border - and the absence of any controls on small traders - would encourage fraud and smuggling. So would the VAT proposal - for 2 separate VAT systems, with no controls at the border. /6
Worst of all - especially for Dublin - is the negative effect on the peace process. It is not just that customs checks, wherever they happen, would be a target for terrorists. Peace has depended on republicans in the north feeling that they were almost in a united Ireland. /7
The absence of border controls helped them to feel that way. So Dublin sees customs checks as a threat to peace. /8
Another big problem for the EU is the consent mechanism. True, Dublin and Brussels are happy that the plan allows for NI to stay in the single market for agri-foods and industrial goods - necessitating controls in the Irish Sea. /9
But this only happens if Stormont agrees, and the consent must be renewed every 4 years. This effectively gives the DUP a veto over renewal - and non-renewal would lead to hard controls on the border itself. /10
The British government hopes that the EU is so keen to avoid no deal that it will engage with these proposals - and ministers say that their position can evolve. But the EU is unlikely to budge: /11
No deal is not imminent, since the Benn Act is likely to force the UK to seek an extension of EU membership. The EU also believes it is ready for no deal, that no deal would be worse for the Brits and that if it happens they'll soon return to the negotiating table. /12
British officials pick up hints from several member-states that they would like to compromise, and so hope that some of the 27 will lean on the Irish to show 'flexibility'. But there is no sign of this happening. /13
If the Irish were willing to forgo a backstop, the rest of the EU would probably be happy to follow. But Dublin is not softening. /14
The politics of Ireland prevent @LeoVaradkar from accepting the BJ plan. If he accepted a deal sans backstop, creating a permanent border on the island of Ireland, he would be pilloried by the opposition - and probably lose the next election. /15
No deal would work better politically for Varadkar. He would have to put controls on the frontier with NI but he could blame the UK and welcome EU economic aid - until the UK caved in and agreed to a backstop, in which case the controls would go. /16
The EU will not agree to a deal unless NI in effect stays in its customs union. But if BJ were to go there he would lose the support of the DUP and the ERG and therefore be unable to get the deal through Parliament. So there will not be a deal by October 31. /ENDS
