So this - as you'd expect from the author - is interesting piece.
The ideas on Northern Ireland 'consent' are much closer to what Dublin/EU could accept I think. Effectively reverse the polarities of the Johnson proposal. /1
The ideas on Northern Ireland 'consent' are much closer to what Dublin/EU could accept I think. Effectively reverse the polarities of the Johnson proposal. /1
But as @RaoulRuparel notes, it would be a very hard sell to @duponline who have been parading their 'veto' around the last week or so - a veto that was strengthened to include right to kibbosh the whole think before end of transition. /2
@RaoulRuparel @duponline The customs party is trickier still - and obviously, as he says, the details & modalities would need to be worked out in the transition period. Which still begs the question of what happens if/when it doesn't work. The 'unless and until' construct. /3
@RaoulRuparel @duponline On the substance of the customs, there is a sense that the Member States probably are more flexible that the EU Commission, and to date they've always backed @MichelBarnier, knowing that failure to do that is the road to disolution for EU unity. /4
@RaoulRuparel @duponline @MichelBarnier The two customs options have big challenges..the first is a retread of May's two channels. But as Raoul notes, you'd need a lot of spot checks/market surveillance to ensure NI goods weren't circulating in SM, if there wasn't a border - which is the point. /5
@RaoulRuparel @duponline @MichelBarnier The issue with option two - the New Customs Partnership idea for NI-only that @MESandbu has been touting is that from an EU perspective, the 'rebates' given to NI traders risk essentially being subsidies against RoI businesses. Then there is smuggling risk too. /6
@RaoulRuparel @duponline @MichelBarnier @MESandbu Of course, as Raoul notes, none of this can be hammered out in next 10 days, so you'd need hard commitments, which just begs the question of what happens if it doesn't work - or until it can be shown that it does. /7
@RaoulRuparel @duponline @MichelBarnier @MESandbu That will depend on management of East-West (GB-NI) border which in current proposal the UK says "we won't use EU processes but we'll design our own" - unspecified, untested and outside the jurisdiction of the EU. Big issues. /8
@RaoulRuparel @duponline @MichelBarnier @MESandbu Makes you think that what you need is a mechanism - some kind of all-weather insurance policy - to create space to work this stuff out (which could take years knowing HMRC and computers) and maintain stability in the meantime.
Now why didn't someone think of that before?;) ENDS
Now why didn't someone think of that before?;) ENDS
