Thread by @ReichlinMelnick

Fact check! Today @ICEgov's Matt Albence said "The vast majority, about 87% of [families] placed on the accelerated court docket have failed to show up for even their initial court hearing."

THIS IS NOT TRUE. In fact, it's almost the opposite.

So why did he say that? A thread.

@ICEgov First, let's talk reality.

In June, @TRACReports analyzed nine months of government data on the immigration courts' accelerated "Family Unit Dockets."

Almost exactly opposite to what Albence claimed today, TRAC found 85.5% of all families had attended the first hearing.

@ICEgov @TRACReports In total, @TRACReports found that 39,957 of 46,743 people on the accelerated family unit docket who'd had at least one hearing had appeared in court.

Albence claimed 87% had failed to appear. Clearly not.

trac.syr.edu/immigration/re…

@ICEgov @TRACReports So where did Matt Albence get his 87% number from?

It seems likely that it came from this May congressional testimony given by ICE ERO head Natalie Asher. Specifically, this passage right here.

Importantly, note the very precise way that Asher describes that 87.5% figure.

@ICEgov @TRACReports The 87.5% figure cited by Asher is a measure of the family unit docket's "in absentia rate."

Critically, as I've documented, "in absentia" rates are NOT the same thing as appearance rates.

In other words, her figure DOES NOT measure the percent of families that missed court.

@ICEgov @TRACReports In absentia" rate is a measure of how many cases reached a conclusion in any given period because a person missed court.

But! Because the vast majority of family unit docket cases *haven't finished yet,* there's a HUGE difference between the in absentia rate and appearance rate.

@ICEgov @TRACReports Imagine 10 people are scheduled to appear in court. Only 9 people show up.

At the hearing, the judge issues a deportation order to the person who missed court, and finishes one other case.

That day, the appearance rate was 90%—9 in 10—but the "in absentia" rate was 50%—1 in 2.

@ICEgov @TRACReports And THAT is how Matt Albence screwed this up that badly.

As the chart below shows, the family unit docket has a high "in absentia rate" only because most cases are pending.

Through July 19, families had missed court in only 21% of cases, despite an "in absentia" rate of 80%.

@ICEgov @TRACReports As more cases are completed, we've actually seen the "in absentia" rate for the family unit docket drop in real time.

In February, Nathalie Asher testified it was 96.7%.
In May, she testified it was 87.5%.
On July 19, EOIR data shows it was at 80.1%.
By August 5, it was 79.1.%.

@ICEgov @TRACReports This exact problem in the government's thinking about who shows up in court was the reason I wrote a @WSJopinion op-ed called "Trump's Bad Immigration Math." I encourage you to give it a read.

Unfortunately, the government keeps making this mistake! wsj.com/articles/trump…

@ICEgov @TRACReports @WSJopinion In addition, we @immcouncil have put out a fact sheet on appearance rates.

In it, we collect data that demonstrates conclusively that immigrants and families DO appear in court.

If anyone ever says otherwise, I encourage you to share this fact sheet!
americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immig…

@ICEgov @TRACReports @WSJopinion @immcouncil Finally, if you need some hard numbers, here's a table from our fact sheet collecting various different data sources (mostly TRAC, some from our own research) on how many people actually appear for immigration court.

Short answer? Since 2008, it's 83%.

americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immig…

@ICEgov @TRACReports @WSJopinion @immcouncil In almost* every year since 2008, fewer than 20% of people placed into removal proceedings have ended up missing court. There is epidemic of people disappearing.

*2014 is an outlier for complicated reasons likely related to government failures to rapidly adjust to high numbers.

@ICEgov @TRACReports @WSJopinion @immcouncil Final note; family unit docket appearance rates seem lower than the normal appearance rates likely because of the docket's design, as @BridgetCambria8 points out.

On the family unit docket, the risk of unintentionally missing court is higher than normal.

https://twitter.com/BridgetCambria8/status/1182354993011220489