, 9 tweets, 3 min read
What if the new trade deals would actually threaten Northern Irish interests like some farming? Making trade deals totemic isn't necessarily a good idea...
Also the word "necessarily". This all feels rather fragile yet again
A vague outline with lots of detail to fill in, a fragile domestic support, and just a few days, feels like it would require an awful lot of skill to get to a solution. It would certainly be a first from the UK Government during Brexit talks...
Basically do not treat today's apparent Brexit breakthrough as in any way a done deal. From this position to full agreement in normal trade talks can take years working through the detail, while keeping enough people onside.
In the discredited May backstop Northern Ireland was in the same regulatory zone as the EU, and same Customs Union as UK, while in the new plan we believe that it will be in the same regulatory zone as the EU, and same Customs Union as UK...
If the plan is as we believe there will be more checks on Northern Ireland - Great Britain trade than there were under the May backstop.
Talking on the basis of no legal text does not suggest deal in the coming days
And this is where things starts to unravel as the briefings mount up... the idea of a pared back FTA is and has always been nonsense, the EU does not have a mandate and would not in any case do this.. news.sky.com/story/uk-negot…
There remains a reasonable chance that the EU and UK are talking past each other on many details of the new plan e.g. Northern Ireland's ability to leave EU regulatory space (seems important to DUP), transition periods, guarantees - non trivial issues
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