I know it's getting close to Oct 31, but all sides of the Brexit argument seem to be losing their, albeit already fragile, connections to reality. 1/
Are we really about to see PM Johnson present a 'new' WA (with NI backstop) to the HoC, and expect to get DUP, ERG and Labour leave support? 2/
Are the Opposition going to support the 'new' WA in the hope of getting a PV attached? And if so, are they content to see PM Johnson in power for 6+ months? 3/
Or are they instead about to oust Johnson, and, once they've decided who the new PM might be, form a GNU which will pit the old (thrice-rejected) WA against remain in a PV to 'settle' Brexit? 4/
The most likely path is, for all the noise, unchanged. There will be no new deal which can pass through Parliament. There will be an extension as per the Benn Act. And there will be a winter GE. 5/
It is possible that a new mandate will be secured. It is also possible that no resolution will be found. But, given the impasse Parliament is in, I can't see the way in which a GE can be avoided. 6/6
