It seems that it is time to update this. So... knowingly endangering my burgeoning Nostrodamus (or witch) reputation, this is how I see the days ahead unfolding. 1/
The July thread was premised on two key assumptions (which I still think hold true). First, that Johnson is more interested in power than in Brexit (or any particular Brexit outcome). 2/
And second, that any attempt to define Brexit (to make it concrete), almost inevitably leads to a loss of support for Brexit. However it is defined, some of its erstwhile supporters will find the reality hard to stomach. 3/
In July, I thought we were heading for a pre-Brexit general election. I thought Johnson would construct a narrative that his Brexit plan was frustrated by the EU and the remainer Parliament, keep Brexit voters onside, bank on a divided opposition, and win the GE. 4/
That is still his plan; but I am not convinced either that he has played his difficult well, or that there are not alternative plans at his disposal. 5/
What if, for instance, he could achieve Brexit pre the GE, by October 31 (give or take a technical extension), and win a GE on the back of delivering a Brexit deal with the EU? 6/
Or what if, for instance, he could find a way around the Benn Act, take the UK out on October 31, and win a GE before the negative effects of no deal hit home? 7/
This sort of thinking helps to explain the wild fluctuations of the past few weeks. These make sense if he has no preferred Brexit destination, but is merely using Brexit in order to win a general election, and a majority in the HoC. 8/
(On all this, do read Hannah Arendt's Origins of Totalitarianism.) 9/
But the problem for Johnson is that both the 'deal' and 'no deal' alternatives are not just difficult, but almost certainly, given the current political climate, impossible. 10/
In relation to a deal: Is NI (and the UK) going to be in or out of the single market and the customs union? If out, how will a border be avoided, or 'de-dramatized'? See 
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In relation to no deal: there does not appear to be any way around the Benn Act. More than that, there is no story around what good things will happen in the days/weeks/months following a no deal exit from the EU. 12/
So... where does this leave us? I think that Johnson is finding out that neither deal or no deal are achievable; or, if they are achievable, that they do not easily lead to a GE win. 13/
So... I expect the talks to break down in acrimonious fashion, perhaps before the weekend. He cannot compromise 'too far'. The anti-EU and anti-Parliament rhetoric will be ratcheted up. 15/
For all the GNU talk, and once an extension is secured, I do not think that the opposition can - or indeed should - try to avoid a winter general election. 16/
The task for the Opposition, as it was in July, is to work together and prevent Johnson from winning the GE. I'd say that their chances look better - but only slightly better - now than they did then. 17/17
I’d really welcome thoughts as to whether this might be right. @rdanielkelemen (who I inexplicably didn’t link to on his Venn Diagram), and @mrjamesob @GuitarMoog @Sime0nStylites @PaoloBrennan @lsebrexitvote and many more...
