This has been a fascinating thread and discussion on the merits of revoke and the PV as rival paths to a remain outcome. Here's another take on why I am (at best) cautious about the PV path. Thread. 1/
Let's assume at the start that everything goes just as supporters of the PV hope. So... there is no last minute deal, Johnson is replaced, an extension is secured, and either a GNU is formed, or Lab win the GE. Bear with me... 2/
Further, the Govt then decides on and passes legislation for a PV (on either the WA v remain, or Lab's better Brexit v remain). The scene is surely set for a big remain win... as many in Labour also indicate their preference for remain. 3/
The problem lies in the likely reaction of Brexiters. Some (the Labour leavers) will endorse the PV and back the Brexit option. My worry is in relation to the remaining Leave voters, who might vote for Johnson or Farage (perhaps, in those circs, 35% of the electorate). 4/
How will they react? Some may think they will back the Brexit on offer. But that is, imv, vanishingly unlikely. They are far more likely, from the outset, to cry betrayal and seek to attack the credibility of the PV, saying that it deprives them of 'their' Brexit choice. 5/
They will, relentlessly, attack the legitimacy of the 2nd ref itself, and the chosen leave option (a leave deal which they reject, many in Labour reject, and which is, they will say, 'not Brexit'). 6/
They might well urge a boycott of the referendum. They are sure to pledge to reverse the result, and restart the A50 process. 7/
So... the idea that the Brexit question will be settled by a PV, seems to me to be rather far-fetched.
But what of revoke? Does it not face similar obstacles? 8/
But what of revoke? Does it not face similar obstacles? 8/
Leavers (including, this time, the Labour leavers) will, again, cry betrayal. And again, they may pledge to reverse the result. 9/
But revoke offers a direct path to remain - in particular if it takes place in the aftermath of a GE win for parties pledged to revoke. If revoke is on the table, the GE becomes an (even) higher stakes event. 10/
But... the point of greatest contestation takes place in the immediate aftermath of a GE won by remain parties.
By contrast, under the PV route, the poisonous debate endures for months; and for why? To give leavers a 'choice' they don't want. 11/11
By contrast, under the PV route, the poisonous debate endures for months; and for why? To give leavers a 'choice' they don't want. 11/11
