A big week for Brexit, and I thought it would be useful to set out how reaching a deal with the EU is about rather more than just fleshing out the details of a novel customs scheme for Northern Ireland - there would have to be an overall package around this 1/
First recall red lines - for the EU no border or associated checks in Ireland, protection of single market. For the UK, no Customs Union with the EU, protect the integrity of the UK, and something around consent if Northern Ireland follows EU rules 2/
The proposed solution - the special customs zone of Northern Ireland, based on a previous Facilitated Customs Arrangement proposal that was UK wide. Essentially products entering N Ireland from GB may have to pay tariffs if destined for the EU 3/
In theory that sounds achievable if possibly complex to implement, and former Number 10 staffer @RaoulRuparel who wrote an article on this last week has answered more questions on it last night. But it has some dependencies 4/
@RaoulRuparel Most importantly I can't see how the plan works without a zero tariff and quota trade agreement between UK and EU, given all-Ireland trade will not be tracked. One feature of such agreements with the EU are level playing field provisions Johnson previously rejected... 5/
@RaoulRuparel To qualify for zero tariffs you need rules of origin to ensure the UK can't just repackage goods from elsewhere. These would then need to be tracked for GB-Northern Ireland-EU trade. Barnier mentioned drinks produced using imported sugar as an example. Complex 6/
@RaoulRuparel The Northern Ireland solution and an FTA could take some years to put in place. So even if this is the proposed destination you are going to need to agree what happens between now and then. That was originally where a backstop came in... 7/
@RaoulRuparel So we're on to guarantees. The UK wants to be free as quickly as possible to sign new trade deals. The EU wants to guarantee there will never be a border in Ireland. As much as the technical details this is a major problem to overcome, especially in a low trust environment 8/
@RaoulRuparel Then there are the consent or democracy issues. The UK wants to give Northern Ireland the choice of following EU product rules, including for animals, to make this system work. We then need a mechanism, and a plan for what happens if the choice is no 9/
@RaoulRuparel Once all of this is agreed you then need to put it into legal form, where we currently have a Withdrawal Agreement that is legally binding, and a Political Declaration that is aspirational. The more that goes into the former, the more work to agree exact details 10/
@RaoulRuparel Recall that even in the May deal there is an aspiration to replacing a backstop with alternative arrangements, but the backstop is fixed in the treaty, though would need further detailing. The way to find alternative arrangements are not specified 11/
@RaoulRuparel Both the EU and UK therefore have to decide what guarantees they need for confidence, based on their own constituencies e.g. in the case of the UK the DUP, in the case of the EU Ireland and France. This is an absolutely crucial part of the process 12/
@RaoulRuparel Once you have the legal text there is then the political process - of agreement by the UK and European Parliament to the text, where both are likely to have detailed questions, which could lead to modifications if they haven't been involved in the prior process 13/
@RaoulRuparel Taken together this is work of weeks and months, but is the real business of negotiations once red lines have become clear. However, both UK and EU are still testing the other on this (EU still wanting Northern Ireland only arrangements) which is another reason for caution 14/
@RaoulRuparel But to summarise, the UK and EU have to reach a deal on their proposed pathway and the way in which this will be implemented, put this in treaty form, and then get the support of their Parliaments. Including subjects like a future FTA and guarantees. Tricky by Wednesday 15/ end
