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, 5 tweets, 1 min read
If there is a new Brexit deal on the way we don't know what it exactly looks like, but I've attempted to explain what I think it might be here...

prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…

I finish pessimistically. That was a few hours ago. Who knows now?
As an aside business and government would have to abruptly change from no-deal to trade agreement planning in the event of a deal.
All eyes...
Could it be the case that taking no-deal off the table does not in fact stop you from getting a deal?
I hope you're keeping up with the deal or no-deal chatter.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Finally we have text of a Brexit deal - though to recall we have to combine the old Withdrawal Agreement with the new Ireland protocol, and then add in the new non-binding Political Declaration. What are the main points to think about? 1/
First and most importantly, Great Britain could face a no-deal Brexit in 14 months time. That's the length of the transition period given it hasn't been extended since the original deal failed. An extension of that is possible but of course not guaranteed 2/
The UK then faces a minimum of 14 months abiding by all EU rules and regulations. But in the absence of another agreement there is a Northern Ireland backstop, where the province will be in part in both the UK and EU single markets 3/
Read 16 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
First view of the text - there is awful lot buried in a list of EU regulations that Northern Ireland will have to follow under the deal. Second, most of the detail on future GB-NI-EU relationship is put into the next stage
Northern Ireland in effect part of the EU Customs territory through this provision - and while the UK can negotiate trade agreements covering Northern Ireland, this will be a complication. Also not clear to me yet if Northern Ireland input eligible for EU trade agreements
Now to try to sum up for @britishchambers trade conference...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
On Brexit, I may have mentioned this before, but I await legal text (and an actual agreement) to make a proper judgement. It seems that the backstop may have been time limited only in the sense a majority in Northern Ireland would have to vote to end it (unlikely)
The detail of the customs arrangements, how N-Ireland to EU trade works, any accompanying UK-EU FTA, further conditions like level playing field, ultimate arbiter of arrangements, and length of transition period are all areas to watch when we see details.
Once we have the details will also be interesting to see whether there's a revived no-deal / clean break campaign. Because this deal sounds messy, as was always likely to be the case. Or whether a this deal but only with referendum feeling takes root.
Read 6 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Effectively -despite all the noise - the state of #Brexit negotiations has NOT really changed in last three days or so:
i) Much as there is huge political will in EU to get Brexit deal done.. /1
EU leaders do NOT want to be hurried into making a new deal to fit Boris Johnson’s timetable. Has to be something they can live with - that doesn’t cause potential probs for single market/ NIreland peace process in years to come /2
ii) This is very difficult to ‘fudge’! EU demanding not ‘good intentions’ as to how single market and peace process should be safeguarded on island of Ireland after Brexit but rather a ‘legally operative text’ /3
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
EXC: So. @PhilipHammondUK has finally said it - the entire 'bucaneering Britain' #Brexit narrative is based on a fallacy.

The much anticipated free trade deals don't outweigh costs of barriers to trade with EU from #Brexit 1/Thread

Full interview:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@PhilipHammondUK Think about that for a sec.

The whole row over the backstop and quitting the Customs Union is so we can win the right to make ourselves poorer.

So says the for Chancellor. They have "very limited" economic potential. /2
@PhilipHammondUK As you'd expect from 'Spreadsheet Phil' he's not making it up - he's run the numbers. (See research by LSE, HMT, @jdportes and others).

They are mad:

UPSIDE from FTAs all FTA is less than 0.5% additional GDP by 2030

DOWNSIDE of Canada minus deal? Negative 4-7% 'lost' GDP /3
Read 18 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
As EU watches open-mouthed the scenes in Westminster.. in Paris, Berlin, Dublin, Brussels and the rest - leaders are asking: What Next?? And since no one knows for sure, there’s some contingency planning going on /1
Chances of getting a deal with UK by the EU leaders’ mid Oct summit were never seen here to be high. Now contacts describe the likelihood as « pretty much nil ». Remember EU governments would need to see the text of a legally operable alternative to the backstop b4 the summit /2
So as to present it to their own governments before approving it. Right now the two sides are nowhere near agreement. EU doubts the PM willing at this stage to make big compromises and EU doesn’t see point in making big sacrifices right now because /3
Read 14 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Catching up on this week’s #Brexit news- @HMRCgovuk's decision to allocate the customs ID numbers, EORI, to 88k companies is an important step forward in #NoDeal nodeal prep. This solves one of the 3 main issues around EORI numbers /1

ft.com/content/526a83…
@HMRCgovuk Each company that imports/exports outside the EU currently already has one. But until now you didn't need one if you were only moving goods within the EU. EORI is also required to register for TSPs - Gov's D1ND simplified customs procedures /2

gov.uk/guidance/regis…
@HMRCgovuk Allocating EORI numbers to all VAT registered companies that need one, was something that @britishchambers has been advocating for months. @HMRCgovuk's concerns around automatic enrolment were valid but given time left and numbers involved - it needed to be done /3
Read 6 tweets
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LockHRCUP
@QWarrior1917
New Q thread of Q drop 2596
Q said in PAST Each drop builds a map. Its a Huge Spider Web
@RedPill78 @IPOT1776 @FincastleUnderG @fedupwarriorq17 @neXgenAnon @madmandave1011
3 Ms
MERKEL
MAY
MACRON
Follow the Thread
LEAVING EU!!
#BREXIT
Article 50.
LEAVE EUROPEAN UNION SUCCESSFULLY
#WWG1WGAWORLDWIDE

EU WARNED: Yellow Vest hold key to Le Pen's success in bid to topple Macron at EU election

express.co.uk/news/world/108…
#QANON #QARMY KEK FREEDOM
PATRIOTS IN CONTROL
#WWG1WGAWORLDWIDE
Read 16 tweets
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Leopold Traugott
@LeopoldTraugott
I did a quick explainer for @prospect_uk on how #Brexit may affect #VAT, both domestically and in relation to EU-UK trade. Quick thread on some of the key points: prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
1/ The UK, like all other EU member states, currently is part of the common EU VAT area. While the EU does not prescribe exact VAT rates, it put in place certain guidelines, e.g. a minimum standard rate of 15%, or limits on granting of reduced rates and exemptions.
2/ Leaving the EU presumably means leaving its VAT area (Monaco currently only non-EU state that is a member). This would have a range of serious implications, both positive and negative.

(Though some trade experts expect EU would offer UK continued membership, if asked.)
Read 10 tweets

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