Thread by @pmdfoster

So @DavidDavisMP tells @bbcnickrobinson that we will "maintain" access to the EU market under Canada-minus trade deal (true, but reduced access) and that will unlock the "spectacular" benefits of free trade deals...so the sale the begins. Can @PhilipHammondUK vote for that? /1

@DavidDavisMP @bbcnickrobinson @PhilipHammondUK David Davis dismisses treasury forcecasts as mumbo-jumbo, but as @bbcnickrobinson tries to point out, on any reading erecting barriers to trade with advanced markets on our doorstep has to hurt - whatever your views on the models.

But if you are interested in models../2

@DavidDavisMP @bbcnickrobinson @PhilipHammondUK Then @UKandEU team including @jdportes
have done some to assess impact of @BorisJohnson Canada-minus deal, depending on migration scenarios. Striking how there isn't that much difference with No Deal. /3

ukandeu.ac.uk/johnsons-brexi…

There is so much fatigue and desire to move on that it is still possible that @BorisJohnson deal gets support, and ultimately the question of how buccaneery the future settlement is, is settled in future elections.../4

@BorisJohnson But it would appear on any reasonable reading that (as I think we all knew) #brexit is an act of economic self-harm - it's the old adage of gravity trade models "double the distance, halve the trade" - but of course #Brexit is not just about trade. /5

@BorisJohnson It might also be worth considering that the history of UK-EU negotiations so far is a tale of big, headline promises....that bit by bit slump back to earth. Gravity takes over, in politics as well as trade. /6

@BorisJohnson On that basis, it might be reasonable to assume that @BorisJohnson talks a big, buccaneering game, but fully acquainted with the trade-offs @WeyandSabine and EU trade negotiators, might lose his taste for the high seas. /7

@BorisJohnson @WeyandSabine Not clear also there is a political appetite for deregulation in the EU - consider the current politics of the environment, the attachment to social protections etc. The scope for cutting - and the dividend - is more limited than @trussliz and other suggest /8

@BorisJohnson @WeyandSabine @trussliz So either the fight over the Boris deal is really a fight over the future.

The Northern Ireland part, if DUP happy, is just parking NI in a slighly less-advantageous special status than they would have had under @theresa_may backstop /9

@BorisJohnson @WeyandSabine @trussliz @theresa_may It is the future that's really different under @BorisJohnson.

Whether opponents of #Brexit dig in, or enough reluctantly acquiesce and bet on gravity taking its course I cannot yet tell.

There is a cost - political as well as economic - to deadlock too.

10/ENDS