Thread by @uk_domain_names

Still signs we're inching towards a Brexit deal. But remember:
- MPs will have to sign off on something monstrously complex in a matter of hours. No chance of scrutiny. No chance even to read the full documents.
- It's worse than Theresa May's deal unless you're the ERG/DUP

Who gains from it?
- Boris Johnson: he gets to keep his idiotic "do or die" claim
- Tories: once we're out, support for the Brexit Party will crater (even though Brexit proper is just starting, most people won't care about the nuance)
Who loses from it?
- All of us
- Labour party

Other consequences too:
- Because of transition period, many people will assume (because nothing went wrong immediately) that Brexit really was "Project Fear". Consequence: coming up to the new cliff edge (end of transition) they won't believe any of the warnings.

- Companies will execute their contingency plans. Some will leave. Others will cut back investment further. Once we're out, we've replaced one uncertainty with another. We used to not know if we're leaving or not. That's answered. Instead we won't know what Brexit we get.

- So we can expect an immediate and sustained hit to the economy, but perhaps tempered for a few months by a massive unwinding of stockpiles because companies know no deal won't happen either.

Remember: what firms can't cope with is uncertainty. A decision, even a bad one, provides certainty. But a bad decision doesn't suit the companies, it just provides a signpost saying "this is what you need to do now". And for many of them it will read "leave the UK market".

(No deal on 31 October would have provided certainty too. The certainty of death.)