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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
The Saturday vote on @BorisJohnson’s deal will be closer than people think. Around 18 or 19 of the Tory rebel exiles will vote for it, subject to a Letwin-ish amendment that the Benn Act applies till the whole of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is law. @BorisJohnson will see...
that amendment as holding the feet to the flame of the Brexit Spartans. He won’t hate it, whatever his public position. Because the ERG Spartans will fear if they vote against the deal and the WAB, that Brexit delay and no Brexit will follow. Now, the DUP’s opposition to...
Johnson’s deal is a challenge for Johnson. But as I said earlier on @itvnews there is genuinely a chance Johnson’s deal passes - and I never ever said that about any of @theresa_may’s meaningful votes.
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Robert Peston
@Peston
.@BorisJohnson is having one last push to get his Brexit deal approved by Parliament - with his fallback being a bill very like LibDems’ to hold a general election in December. No.10 officials are ringing those MPs who voted for 2nd reading of Withdrawal Agreement...
but then voted against the programme motion, the very short timetable to debate the bill, saying unless they commit in public by Monday pm to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill by “mid November”, the government will introduce a bill...
very like the LibDems’ bill, to amend the Fixed Term Parliament Act and hold December election.
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
And another thing. With Labour blocking an election and Johnson shelving Brexit legislation, a Brexit extension to 31 January - the delay written into the Benn Act - will achieve precisely zilch. It guarantees the UK will request another extension at the end of January. So...
just possibly EU leaders will re-evaluate the delay they offer. It would now be rational for them to offer either a much longer extension - say till spring 2020 - to allow for an election or a referendum, or a much shorter one, to 15 Nov, to offer parliament a binary choice...
between the latest deal and no deal. Right now a delay till 31 January looks like guaranteed limbo. So maybe EU leaders will now think about playing it longer or shorter.
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
As I mentioned on @itvpeston just now, there is a route to a general election for @BorisJohnson. If leader of opposition won't table vote of no confidence - and looks like he won't soon - the SNP and @IanBlackfordMP could. It would be unconventional for the government to...
accept such a motion from anyone but leader of official opposition. But this is the least conventional government in modern times. So maybe that will be the route. I understand SNP considering such a move. Since the SNP and Tories - and maybe the LibDems - all agree...
government impossible this side of a general election.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Dom Walsh
@DomWalsh13
The Letwin amendment for tomorrow's vote is a game-changer. To quote a certain former Brexit Secretary, I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this...

This is what the meaningful vote motion-as-amended would look like (green is added, red is deleted).

👀👀
This means:
- Motion as amended would NOT really signify approval of the deal, or of anything at all. It's effectively a neutral terms motion.
- It's no longer a meaningful vote for the purposes of *either* the EUWA 2018 *or* the Benn Act. So Johnson would have to seek extension.
The EU Withdrawal Act 2018 requires MPs to pass both a meaningful vote on the deal *and* a Withdrawal Agreement Bill implementing the legislation. You have to pass both to "avoid No Deal"

It doesn't specify in which order, however (thanks @ThimontJack for correcting me on that!)
Read 11 tweets
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Barrister's Horse
@BarristersHorse
THREAD

THE CURSE OF THE BENN ACT RETURNS

1. I've tweeted about the difficulties of the 'Benn Act' before. Little did I know how circumstances would evolve and how it may play such a huge role in what might unfold.
2. Jolyon Maugham is litigating in the Scottish Courts again. He's seeking an injunction to prevent the Government placing the new Withdrawal Agreement (WA) before Parliament for a vote later this week.
3. The basis for the latest litigation is that Boris's version of the WA contravenes S.55 of the Taxation (Cross border trade) Act 2018 ('Tax Act'), which states it is unlawful for Northern Ireland to be in a different customs territory to Great Britain.
Read 8 tweets
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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
They’re back! (They never went away) Brexit Party Conference week final rally in London. Packed to the rafters.
.@TiceRichard: “these people in Parliament get a little bit upset when you use the word ‘surrender’. How pathetic. Many of them haven’t done a proper day’s work in their lives.”
Tice: “We are way past peak Boris. They’ve made some bad, bad judgments in the last few weeks. Culminating in the Supreme Court judgment this week.”
Read 24 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2BTw5DN
Read 736 tweets
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
2/8 Having an #objective, #rational, #ScientificSocialist, #Dialectical, & #Materialist viewpoint allows us to accurately see & evaluate & analyze #Truth & #Reality as they truly materially exist in this universe.
3/8 An idealistic, dogmatic viewpoint, which capitalists have, however, makes one irrational enough to 'see' freedom where freedom stays trapped on a piece of paper while people are oppressed in their actual lived lives.
Read 586 tweets

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