1/ Time for the official TC Overly Simple Earnings Prediction Model That Works Until it Doesn't™️ thread.
Disclosure: I live in Elon's head, so he is likely to mess with the financials just to make me look foolish. I'm sneaking this in while he is off twitter.
$TSLAQ
Disclosure: I live in Elon's head, so he is likely to mess with the financials just to make me look foolish. I'm sneaking this in while he is off twitter.
$TSLAQ
2/ We begin with the simple observation that net income minus automotive gross margin has held remarkably steady at -$1.4B since the Model 3 reached scale. This is the hole Elon needs to climb out of with auto gross margin dollars just to break even. Let's plug in -$1.4B. $TSLAQ 
3/ Next I estimate a purposely over-simplified number: Auto gross margin dollars per announced unit delivery. I do this by comparing the puts and takes (see what I did there Omar?) from last quarter. I settled on $10.1K per delivery. I'll explain my assumptions in the next tweet.
4/ Unit margin headwinds: price cuts, currency, logistics, leasing, and raw material costs.
Unit margin tailwinds: FSD revenue recognition and increased regulatory credits
The TC Magic Eight Ball™️ says $10.1K per unit delivery. $TSLAQ
Unit margin tailwinds: FSD revenue recognition and increased regulatory credits
The TC Magic Eight Ball™️ says $10.1K per unit delivery. $TSLAQ
5/ And in yet another TC Miracle™️, it just happens that 97,000 x $10,100 - $1.4B = -$420MM.
Trade carefully, not investment advice, and if you are looking to buy puts please consider purchasing them from TC's Put Store™️.
TC's Put Store - Come Get Da Cheapies™️
$TSLAQ
Trade carefully, not investment advice, and if you are looking to buy puts please consider purchasing them from TC's Put Store™️.
TC's Put Store - Come Get Da Cheapies™️
$TSLAQ
