A short thread on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill. As I said yesterday, we are approaching one of only 2-3 pivotal remaining moments in the pre-Brexit saga. (The second one being an election and the third - a very uncertain prospect now - a new referendum on the deal)
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It seems very likely that the WAB will pass its second reading given that the independent conservatives and some labour MPs will support it, and indeed Labour as a whole may abstain.
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The main attention will be on the vote on the programme motion. This is the motion on the parliamentary timetable for the remaining stages of the bill. The opposition parties and the independent Conservative MPs will vote against rushing the bill through in 3 days.
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Taking control of the parliamentary timetable will allow scrutiny of the Bill beyond the 31 Oct and will require the EU to decide on whether to grant the UK an art 50 extension.(The extension could still allow for an early exit, incidentally, if the bill is passed in December)
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If the Govt loses the programme motion, attention switches to whether the opposition parties can modify the WAB.When Theresa May was grappling with meaningful and indicative votes the opposition parties couldn’t coordinate on a single alternative to the May deal (CU, EEA+, etc)
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This will play differently. It’s different from indicative votes. Not least because many of the potential amendments relate to detailed elements of the bill.
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As ever many of the potential amendments relate not to the withdrawal agreement but to the political declaration. And the PD could be modified after an election. A whole series of changes will be attempted.
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It has been suggested that if this happens the Govt could withdraw the WAB as they would be seen as wrecking amendments. But if they can limit the changes to the PD they could still press ahead, as the PD could still be changed during the implementation period.
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This in many respects is the key point: those supporting the direction of travel in the current PD must realise where this is going: it’s a very hard Brexit. As @CER_Grant sets out clearly here -
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It will hit all UK exports to the EU not only services but also manufacturing etc This will likely not be a CETA-type FTA but more like Canada minus minus. With a considerable economic downside. Brace yourselves for a tough ride.
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