Thread by @Staedtler

Humans, honestly. You are always, always on the wrong page.
It would take ages to explain, and I haven't had second breakfast yet.

This election can't be about anything except Brexit because you won't know what state the country is in, or how much there is of it left.

You haven't even figured it out yet, there are no ways out.

You think about this. There are only three possible ways this election can go. Tory majority, Labour majority, hung parliament. And it's going to be one of them, so let's do them all . . .

Tory majority. You know Boris Johnson's manifesto is a hard Brexit and a border in the Irish Sea.
If he does that after Northern Ireland votes to stay in the United Kingdom, it's going to provoke violence. But he would have to do it. Split his party and collapse within months

And that's what happens with a Tory majority. Hard Brexit, border in the Irish Sea, Scotland pushing for independence and economic chaos. Even with a modest majority Johnson's government would collapse within weeks.

Alright. So what about a Labour majority.

Well, that's going to be the end of the United Kingdom because the first thing Corbyn will do is give the SNP consent for another referendum.

If either Tories or Labour win a majority, the United Kingdom is finished. Violently if the Tories win, peacefully if Labour win, but it's over either way.

Alright, so what happens in a hung parliament? Does that save the country from itself?
Maybe not. If it's a coalition of some kind with Labour, Scotland will get their independence referendum.

If either SNP or Labour is involved in the next government, it will mean another Scottish referendum, and independence this time.

But isn't it possible, you say, that a labour-Lib Dem coalition without the SNP?

Yes. But. Corbyn WANTS Scottish independence

So if a Tory government leads to the break up of the country, a Labour government leads to the break up of the country, AND a labour-SNP coalition leads to the break-up of the country . . .

What, you may ask, is the answer?

The Lib Dems won't go in coalition with the Tories again. But they might not have to.

If Johnson fails to win a majority he'll resign. The Lib Dems might then agree a temporary confidence arrangement for the purpose of securing the legislation for another referendum.

There would then be a second referendum next year, and most likely another general election in 2021.

Curiously, the only way to save the country is to return almost exactly the same parliament as we've got now.

But without Boris Johnson as Tory leader.

And that's the answer. This election is purely to get rid of Boris Johnson and bring about another referendum.
And that means the Tories winning no more than 300 seats, but no less than 280.

That will do it.

The safe zone - both for the country and to stop Brexit is if Labour gets between 240 and 270.

If they go either side of that, too low or too high, then the country has probably had it. Zoot.