No one's got a clue what these percents mean. I'll show you.
In 2015 the Tories got 36% and won a small majority.
But in 2017 they got 42% and failed to win a majority.
In 2015 the Tories got 36% and won a small majority.
But in 2017 they got 42% and failed to win a majority.
And Labour has been all over the place as well.
In 2010 Labour got 29% and got 258 seats.
In 2015 labour got 30% and got 232 seats
In 2017 Labour got 40% and 262 seats
In 2010 Labour got 29% and got 258 seats.
In 2015 labour got 30% and got 232 seats
In 2017 Labour got 40% and 262 seats
In 2015 Labour got a higher vote share but a lower number of seats than in 2010
And in 2017 they got ten percentage points higher than they did in 2010, but only got 4 more seats
And in 2017 they got ten percentage points higher than they did in 2010, but only got 4 more seats
Because what matters more than percent of the national votes is the distribution of those votes.
With 36 percent the Tories can get anything between 300 and 340 seats.
Labour can get 30 percent, and you don't know if that means 320 seats or 360
With 36 percent the Tories can get anything between 300 and 340 seats.
Labour can get 30 percent, and you don't know if that means 320 seats or 360
And because we've got that rare alignment this time with all four parties capable of a good showing all in the same election - Tories, Labour, SNP and Lib Dems - which has never happened before - nobody is going to know what's going on right up to the end
