Thread by @notlarrysabato

24 hours to go- time for final predictions. Thread below.

The VA Senate starts out at 21R and 19D. Lt Gov (D) breaks ties so Ds only need 1 seat to take control.

The Republicans are not seriously contesting any of the Democratic held seats- making the odds of a Democratic pickup of the chamber very likely- I'd rate around 95% chance of D control.

The 13th Senate District (which drew a tweet from President Trump) is the most likely to flip. John Bell (D) is running in a district that was drawn for the GOP in 2011 but has exploded for Dems in the Trump era.

Outlook: Likely Democratic (Pickup)

The 10th Senate District (west Richmond and some burbs) was drawn to go blue when moderate GOP Sen Watkins retired, which he did in 2011. But in 2015 Glen Sturtevant (R) stunned Dems when he won an upset win here, and kept the Senate in GOP hands.

This year once again Sturtevant has impressed by focusing on local issues - similar to the model Ken Cuccinelli used to hold his D leaning seat in Fairfax for a decade. But Ghazala Hashmi (D) came out of nowhere to knock off @SpanbergerVA07's chosen candidate in the primary.

@SpanbergerVA07 I've called this a tossup throughout. But with the winds favoring Dems tomorrow, the 10th District rating is a "Slight-Lean D" headed into election day. The problem with the math for Sturtevant on local issues is he will need them everywhere in this environment, which is tough.

@SpanbergerVA07 In the northern Richmond suburbs the 12th Senate District features a faceoff between 1st term Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) and 1st term Del. Debra Rodman (D).

@SpanbergerVA07 Dunnavent was first elected in 2015 when this seat was considered safe GOP territory. Rodman came in by defeating an incumbent Delegate in 2017 when both she and @VVforDelegate flipped the seats that primarily overlap with Dunnavent. Something must have changed in between... :)

@SpanbergerVA07 @VVforDelegate While the 12th won't decide Senate control, it might be the most important race in the state for D's. A potential 22nd seat, it puts potential caucus problems on ice with the margin and overlaps with two key House races that could determine control there.

@SpanbergerVA07 @VVforDelegate Crossover voting is unlikely here, so someone has to go- either the new D seats flip back in the lower turnout year, or this Senate seat turns blue. That's why Rodman made the smart move to leave the House and take this shot.

@SpanbergerVA07 @VVforDelegate Rating for the 12th District going into election day... it's a real tossup.

@SpanbergerVA07 @VVforDelegate Meanwhile south of Richmond in the burbs the 11th Senate District race is in another historically GOP area- but Senator Amanda Chase (R) has done everything possible to make it competitive for Dems, from disputes with the Cap police to threatening gun control advocates.

@SpanbergerVA07 @VVforDelegate That having been said, Chase is helped by a strong group of GOP Delegates to run with downballot. That will give her the upper hand even in a better environment than usual for Dems. Outlook: Leans GOP

Before we get to Hampton Roads, there is one other competitive race- Sen Bryce Reeves faces Amy Laufer in a seat that runs from Fredericksburg to the outskirts of Charlottesville.

This should be solidly Republican territory but Reeves is an underwhelming incumbent with an even more underwhelming campaign.

Laufer is putting up a real fight with Reeves weaknesses. But this district is still tough for Democrats in between F’burg and C’ville. If Laufer was to pull this off, a wave is hitting VA tomorrow night.

Outlook: Leans GOP

Finally, Virginia Beach is home to two big Senate races. The Beach is the hardest area of the state to predict in off-off year elections because it has the lowest turnout. Senate seats here can sometimes feature less than half the votes cast as a big NoVA seat.

The 7th Senate district was a virtual tie in the Presidential race- but has not swung as far left as other similar districts since then. Northam won the district by 9- but Fairfax by only 2 in 2017- making it the district with the most crossover voters in the close races.

When this district was strongly contested in 2015, popular GOP incumbent Frank Wagner won by 8. Now its open, and Del. Cheryl Turpin (D) faces Jen Kiggans.

This is a seat where both parties have internals showing a lead. Again- in the Beach things like turnout are very hard to predict.

The stat I find the most persuasive is the GOP claiming they have a lead of a few points in the Delegate seat Turpin is giving up. I don't see much crossover likely here, and if that seat is even, then Kiggans will have the edge overall.

So while my final rating here stays as a "Tossup", the late buzz indicates that Kiggans may have the slightest of edges. This is probably seat 23 or 24 for the Dems, so it won't cost the Senate, but the outcome here could be decisive in determining House control downballot.

Meanwhile the 8th Senate District is the parts of Virginia Beach actually on the beach. It is wealthiest closer to the water, and more GOP in the higher income areas. Incumbent Bill DeSteph (R) faces Missy Cotter Smasal (D).

This is a race that has been fought on gun safety and gun control after the massacre in Virginia Beach. Smasal has the upper hand on this issue, but voters here are reliably GOP in local races.

With Smasal's spending I think she will make it closer- and low turnout gives her a real opening, but the GOP remains favored here going into election day.

Outlook: Slight-Lean GOP

So overall where does that leave us?

19 Dem seats (all likely or safe)
1 Likely Dem pickup (giving control to D's)
1 Slight-Lean Dem pickup (making it 21D-19R)
2 Tossups (Could make it 22-18 or 23-17)
1 Slight-Lean GOP (24-16- would be a wave if flipped)
1 Lean GOP (25-15)

So here are your Senate odds:

0% chance of GOP pickup
5% chance of no change (21R-19D)
25% chance of 1 D pickup (20R-20D)
20% chance of 2 D pickup (21D-19R)
25% chance of 3 D pickup (22D-18R)
15% chance of 4 D pickup (23D-17R)
10% chance of 5 or more D pickup