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Hey folks, our new pollster ratings just dropped! This is our first update since May 2018 so will cover the 2018 midterms and all the special elections, etc. during that period. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratin…
There are six A+ rated pollsters:

📈Monmouth University! 🎉
📈Selzer & Co.! 🎉
📈ABC News*/Washington Post! 🎉
📈Marist College! 🎉
📈Siena College/New York Times Upshot! 🎉
📈Muhlenberg College! 🎉

* 538 is owned by ABC News but we've long had this poll rated very highly.
Siena College/@UpshotNYT gets an A+ in their debut—which is super cool and impressive. It originally looked like they might be No. 1 overall in fact, but they weren't quite once we found some older ('16) polls that we had to reclassify from Siena→Siena/Upshot. Still, great job.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing I wonder about Warren is whether the ferocity of the backlash from certain parts of the D establishment to her emerging as a frontrunner caught her campaign by surprise.
There were many "establishment warming to Warren!" stories, which indicated she was preferred to Sanders at a minimum (and maybe most others too). But the moment she (almost) catches Biden in polls, there's an outpouring of anxiety rather than, say, a bunch of endorsements.
We can debate the reasons for that backlash. Misogyny is always a potential ingredient.

But if she thought she could simultaneously seem like a populist to the left, and a wonky, left-but-not-TOO-far-left pragmatic Dem to moderates/the establishment, that's been challenging.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing is that this latest Buttigieg surge is that he initially gained only ~1 point or so after last month's debate, but the media declared it was a huge surge ... and now he's seemingly having a more significant surge, at least in the early states.
Some evidence of this: Buttigieg's net favorability numbers, though they were already quite good, didn't actually improve in this poll from Monmonth's previous one. He's just been more salient in the conversation so more voters have him as their first choice.
p.s. This is a bit of the risk candidates face in attacking Buttigieg. They potentially elevate his profile and keep him in the news. You don't face that problem as much when attacking Biden, Sanders or Warren since they're already household names.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Deval Patrick has more upside than Bloomberg, but he's far from a household name, wouldn't initially be able to participate in debates, and isn't obviously more compelling to D voters than a number of other well-qualified alternatives who are polling at 2-3%.
Plus, candidates who enter late have a terrible track record and D voters are quite happy with their choices. So for a new entrant, we're at a point of going VERY big (say, Oprah! big) or going home.
I do think next week's debate is a big opportunity for Booker, Harris and Klobuchar, who as I've said a number of times are more plausible nominees than a lot of the names being thrown out there.
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T. Greer
@Scholars_Stage
Hey folks, short new blog post out - "The Title IX-ification of American Childhood"

scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ti…

This post is a response to @wesyang's new series on the history of Title IX, and what America's new sex bureaucracy tells us about our times.
@wesyang frames bureaucratic initiatives like this as being the spawn of social justice ideology. I reverse the casualty: social justice ideology is tailor built for a world where political victory comes through petitioning the management.
Things were not always this way--there was a time when American society was built around self governing citizens empowered to solve their own problems. Many of these problems were solved through participatory social institutions like labor unions, church boards, and social clubs;
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
Folks who have never been disappointed in men sure do get disappointed in women easily.
Pelosi won the #midterms, told candidates they could dis her if it helped them win, had to fight a DINO crew to remain Speaker while Schumer, who failed, got a pass.
But yeah--it's "painful."
It would be great to have impeachment begun. But while Biden has totally derailed the primary for weeks with his claims of being Harris's and Booker's victim and only today gave a tepid apology, Pelosi is just doggedly working to get to 2020 and win. That should be the focus.
Pelosi is Speaker through Jan 2021. If folks still think she, not Trump, McConnell, GOP or Schumer, is the problem at that time, then someone MORE progressive, not LESS, with as much ability to garner votes should run to replace her. But strive to separate politics from misogyny.
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afghan peace
@afghanpeacenews
2019 presidential #elections in #Afghanistan
IEC Launches Voter Registration Process ariananews.af/iec-launches-v…

“The voter registration sites will remain open from 7 am until 4 pm and the process will end on June 28th,” said Hawa Alam Nuristani, the chairwoman of IEC.
Presidential Candidates Reject Negotiating in ARG
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Cyrus Toulabi
@CyrusToulabi
All I want is for you brilliant people to weigh in on this!

It appears Barr VIOLATED the Special Counsel rules, 28 CFR § 600.9(a)(3)...

It could be incredibly important! I'd be so grateful!

@Mimirocah1 @JoyceWhiteVance @neal_katyal @BarbMcQuade @tribelaw @gtconway3d @rgoodlaw
@Mimirocah1 @JoyceWhiteVance @neal_katyal @BarbMcQuade @tribelaw @gtconway3d @rgoodlaw Oooh, I think @Neal_Katyal may be talking about Barr's apparent violation of the Special Counsel regulations I've been arguing!

@Mimirocah1 @JoyceWhiteVance @neal_katyal @BarbMcQuade @tribelaw @gtconway3d @rgoodlaw #UPDATE: Unfortunately, @Neal_Katyal did NOT cover Barr's potential violation of the Special Counsel rules in his new piece/appearance on @TheBeatWithAri.

BUT...he did get pretty close, by touching on a central issue connected to the argument I've noted.

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Tomasz Rolbiecki
@TomaszRolbiecki
(THREAD) #Nigeria: In this thread I will be posting all #ISWAP attack claims and everything connected to Nigerian Army's fight against the terrorists in northeastern part of the country. It will be better to have everything in one place. Stay tuned.
Here is part of my work about #ISIS in December. The number of ISWAP attacks reported by their media has doubled compared to November:
The map of #ISWAP control in Borno. The situation has changed since - Baga, Cross Kauwa and Kukawa have been recaptured by Nigerian Army:
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Medlife Crisis (Rohin)
@MedCrisis
Shall I eat these fancy hospital biscuits?

[science thread]
Important vote 🍪🍪🍪
The packet tells me that each biscuit has 300kJ = kilo joules
Or 72kcal = kilo calories, ie 72,000 calories

But the box says "72 calories per biscuit"

So what's that about?
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