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For those sceptical about economic modelling of the long-term impacts of Brexit - this is *precisely* what our models predict, and exactly what virtually every credible mainstream economist expected.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Note: this does not mean "lost jobs" nor recession - that's *not* what the long-term models predict.

It *does" mean less trade (both imports and exports), lower investment, hence lower productivity, slower growth in income per head and hence less money for public services.
No doubt @danieljhannan will be apologising to the experts he slandered:
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Jonathan Portes
@jdportes
We in the UK also have our share of "intellectuals" making some version of the "Great Replacement"/white genocide argument:

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
For those who want more detail, here's @epkaufm setting out how his racialised immigration policy would work: preferences for Anglo-Canadians, then Poles and Afro-Carribbeans, then Hasidic Jews
@epkaufm Here's Paul Collier explaining why a black or Asian Briton, even if born in the UK, isn't really "indigenous"
Read 4 tweets
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Jonathan Portes
@jdportes
Johnson: "There are parts of the country where English is not spoken by some people as their first language and that needs to change".

How does he plan to change it? Mass deportations?

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Astonishing number of people replying to/commenting on this tweet who couldn't be bothered to read it/don't understand English very well.

Johnson complained about people not speaking English *as a first language*. English language classes won't help with that.
More seriously, even in the most highly diverse areas, vast majority of UK residents speak English well or fairly well, even if it's not thir *first* language.

So this is pure dog-whistle by Johnson, even leaving aside the logical failure.
Read 4 tweets
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Jonathan Portes
@jdportes
Short thread on why (despite sounding like common sense) this is not "simple economics" at all. In fact, simple (trade) economics says that abolishing tariffs, while at the same time export on WTO terms (ie our exporters face higher tariffs) will not affect the trade balance.
Why? What does “simple economics” tell us will happen here? Well, abolishing import tariffs will make imports cheaper, while moving to WTO rules makes our exports more expensive in foreign markets. So we’ll sell less and buy more? No. (2/10)
In fact, simple economics – International Trade 101 – tells us that with a floating exchange rate, as the UK has – the £ will fall. This will make imports more expensive and exports cheaper, counteracting the impact of tariff changes. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Can't decid whether it's worth engaging seriously with this govt 'ruling out' anything....it's an election season, and my guess is that ultimately it will depend on the result.

But some quick observations 1/thread
1. If the UK wants an extension to transition (one time, up to 2 years) then the money part must be sorted by July 1. See thread passim. that means money talks in spring next year. Politically tough. /2

2. You can already purist/hardliners like @danielmgmoylan starting to argue that a WTO-terms #brexit at the end of 2020 isn't too far shy of a barebones FTA anyway.

And if you look at the modelling and reports from @SamuelMarcLowe et al, that's right long term. BUT.. /3
Read 10 tweets
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Pablo Pérez
@PabloPerezA
While some are focused in #Brexit slogans, and not able to separate facts from fiction, here is a thread on how the EU is present in your town, city and region, for our UK friends.

Examples of real projects and initiatives⤵️
Liverpool:
-The University alone successfully bid for £7.5m in EU funding for research on nuclear science, cardiovascular health...

-£2.85m for advice to SME manufacturers + £2.6m for 'eco-Innovatory' to develop low-carbon goods and services to help SMEs to grow sustainably
Kent:
-£1.6m of EU funds for Diabetes programme to improve long-term health and well-being to 1000 patients with Type 2 diabetes (with partners from BE,NL and FR)

-Teaching + research facilities at University received £75m EU funs for new facilities (Kent Law Clinic)
Read 68 tweets
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Christina Veiga
@cveiga
I'm at a panel to discuss the specialized high school test and the city's proposal to overhaul admissions to the elite schools. Here's more about the event: eventbrite.com/e/a-community-…
Syed Ali calls the schools "mobility machines." Whoever gets in, does well. Which is part of the reason for the uproar over changing them.
He also asks why focus efforts on this narrow set of schools when the city could be looking at screens more widely. (For those new to the admissions scene in NYC, screens basically refer to competitive entrance criteria that many schools use, often blamed for segregation.)
Read 19 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
Those shocked by the IEA access scandal are fundamentally misunderstanding what Thinktanks do. You might think they are cerebral ivory tower like organisations nothing could be further from the truth.
In practice think tanks are lobbying organisations their job is to populate the information environment on which politicians make decisions
Put another way a think tanks job is to justify a starting conclusion with as much slanted research and half truths as possible on behalf of vested interests who are secretly funding them this is exactly what @MarkJLittlewood was doing
Read 11 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) typical "you can't predict the future" response from brexit supporter. Lets consider it.

We know #Brexit will have a short to mid term impact, it has to due to ongoing uncertainty. Benefits must be long term.
However

2) according to Iain long term forecasts are ridiculous, one cannot predict the future 15 years hence therefore the leaked report is worthless

Fair enough, but equally, Brexit supporters cannot predict benefits 15 years hence - it's a complete unknown for them by the same token
3) so the #Brexit economic argument swaps relative prosperity for short term economic pain & a long term that is somewhere between very good & very bad, we just don't know, and neither do Brexiters, according to their world view.
Definite short term pain & 50-50 on long term pain
Read 8 tweets

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