Thread by @fortelabs

1/ Just finished @MichaelOvitz' autobiography Who Is Michael Ovitz?, the story of building the dominant Hollywood talent agency of his generation, Creative Artists Agency

Besides being an enthralling read, it provides a striking parallel to what is happening in education today

@MichaelOvitz 2/ Ovitz had a thesis: all the power was shifting from major studios to talent (actors, directors, writers). Studios used to basically employ artists, telling them which projects to work on, limiting their pay, and even telling them where they could live

@MichaelOvitz 3/ But as studios lost their stranglehold on distribution (through the rise of TV) they lost this power. Suddenly the most important resource was creativity, and artists saw a huge increase in their pay, control, freedom, and options

@MichaelOvitz 4/ CAA rode this wave by aligning themselves completely with artists. They negotiated hard for their clients, and provided every service under the sun to make their lives easier. They became practically the enemy of the studios due to their advocacy for artists

@MichaelOvitz 5/ That same shift is now happening in education. Schools are the studios, and they are losing their total control over the demand (i.e. students) and supply (instructors). There are now paths to market available for instructors to serve students directly, cutting out middlemen

@MichaelOvitz 6/ This has enormous implications. It implies teaching is going to become highly profitable for the top performing teachers who are able to secure their own distribution. And indeed we are seeing individual instructors making millions since they aren't limited by geography

@MichaelOvitz 7/ Film artists were once treated like mere service providers. Interchangeable and powerless and underpaid. Much like teachers today, they didn't have anywhere else to go to have their skills and knowledge monetized

@MichaelOvitz 8/ We're about to discover that teaching demands as much creativity as acting, writing, or directing. And therefore, that the top performers are not just a little better than the rest, but orders of magnitude better

@MichaelOvitz 9/ As they escape institutions and are able to capture more of the value they create, they will be able to create educational empires and serve millions with the best instruction in the world. Tiny niches that weren't profitable or respected will explode

@MichaelOvitz 9/ This same shift, by the way, has happened with startups. Andreessen Horowitz was intentionally modeled after CAA. They succeeded by offering "full-service investing" and a powerful network, rather than just writing a check. Ovitz was an early advisor and partner

@MichaelOvitz 10/ A few other predictions based on this historical parallel. Top instructors will become global brands, commanding millions and worth billions. They'll become as prominent, known, and respected as top actors, musicians, and artists

@MichaelOvitz 11/ This means you'll see indiv instructors competing and/or collaborating with major educational institutions as equal players. Look out for partnerships with Ivy League universities, governments, military, and school systems outsourcing some courses to online teachers

@MichaelOvitz 11/ Both cost and potential return of creating top courses will skyrocket in coming years. They'll become riskier, as students expect top production values (like special effects in movies), slick marketing, full service, and the personalities they are most loyal to

@MichaelOvitz 12/ Just as movies became brands unto themselves, courses will too, with spinoffs, sequels, merchandise, toys, multilingual translations, live conferences, meetups, cosplays, fan clubs, cult classics, syndication and serialization

@MichaelOvitz 13/ Which courses are profitable or successful will be harder to predict. Sure bets will flop without creative enough marketing, while niche plays will have breakout success as they resonate beyond their niche. Courses will resemble startup investing, with 1% creating most profit

@MichaelOvitz 13/ Only a small percentage of online education today is instructor-led. Most of it is e-learning, corporate training, or distance education by universities. But if talent/creativity really is becoming paramount, it is instructors who will ultimately be the center of gravity

@MichaelOvitz 14/ I believe even today this segment is undercounted, because what they offer often doesn't look like a "course" (memberships, masterminds, coaching, content). This is because they are the first online-first educational format, unlike the others grafted on from trad'l schooling

@MichaelOvitz 15/ This doesn't mean brands won't matter. In fact they'll matter more than ever as the market fragments. But they will be brands not defined by geography of a school building, but by interests, passions, beliefs, goals – by niches, wherever they are located

@MichaelOvitz 16/ My question: what do the talent agencies and full-service VCs of online education look like? Who will broker the quickly shifting balance of power between teachers and institutions and students? Who will sell the shovels?

@MichaelOvitz 17/ Whatever happens, all these trends can be seen as part of a secular shift of power toward individuals, talent, and creativity. It's messy at times, and results in more inequality in the short term, but is a profoundly positive trend, making knowledge more equally accessible