Thread by @UtterlyTC

Identifying strong upcoming fixtures is, quite rightly, used to help identify players to target &/or to keep in your squad.

I decided to investigate this, using data from the opening 12 gameweeks.

Here's a thread covering my logic & my subsequent findings.

Enjoy. #FPL 👍🏼

My starting point was to acknowledge that when we're targeting players with strong upcoming fixtures - we're typically not pondering players from Man City & Liverpool - they're the two best sides, & their players are deemed fixture-proof. As such; I omitted them from here. #FPL

In terms of what constitutes strong fixtures - in this context, I focused on goal-scoring & assist-potential. A subsequent study into defensive options may follow, but this effort was designed to look at the perceived likelihood of attacking returns. #FPL

As a result - my analysis looked at understanding how Midfielders & Forwards have performed so far against teams which I would associate with having been a strong fixture - i.e. I removed the games against stronger defences. #FPL

I was looking at how players outside of MCI/LIV have performed against teams other than: LIV, MCI, CHE, LEI, TOT & SHU.

I appreciate the seemingly arbitrary nature - but IMO; games Vs. those sides would not constitute a strong attacking fixture, hence their omissions. #FPL

The next stage was to consciously segment games against those 14 opponents into Home Vs. Away performance - the reason being; when we target strong upcoming fixtures, we tend to qualify those games in terms of where they're going to be played (at home Vs. on the road). #FPL

This is something which I thought would be interesting to analyse - it's one thing to identify a player(s) who has a strong run of upcoming attacking fixtures - but perhaps it will also help to know how players perform in comparable games Home Vs. Away. #FPL

Caveats & qualifications known, it's also worth noting, numbers are presented in this format:

Name | Price | Metric | Minutes Played

Re. mins; this refers to those played at home or away against the 14 opponents in the sample. #FPL

So, let's get down to some numbers - starting with the HOME matches...

#FPL

Touches In the Box:

Zaha (£6.7m) (37) (295)
Son (£9.6m) (35) (289)
Pukki (£6.7m) (34) (354)

Zaha perhaps one to consider from GW14 onwards, when Palace's run of fixtures in this context matches parameters nicely...#FPL

Big Chances Created:

Mount (£6.8m) (3) (241)
Tielemans (£6.7m) (3) (450)
Eriksen (£8.7m) (3) (234)

With Mou at the helm, will Christian Eriksen's creativity once again flourish..? Mount's numbers also impressive considering the comparatively fewer minutes played. #FPL

Attempted Assists:

Grealish (£5.9m) (17) (450)
Groß (£6.4m) (14) (293)
Tielemans (£6.7m) (12) (450)
Trossard (£5.8m) (12) (231)
Pepe (£9.2m) (12) (288)

Jack Grealish's talisman / attacking linchpin status is supported, so too Brighton's creativity in midfield. #FPL

Big Chances

Abraham (£8.0m) (8) (247)
Wood (£6.2m) (7) (359)
Vardy (£9.6m) (6) (450)

2/3 as expected, but Chris Wood's numbers leap out, don't they? Especially at that price. #FPL

xG (excluding penalties):

Wood (£6.2m) (3.0) (359)
Abraham (£8.0m) (2.3) (247)
Wilson (£7.8m) (2.1) (360)
Grealish (£5.9m) (2.1) (450)

Wood significantly out in front, but Grealish's goal-threat also noticeably high, & minutes assured. #FPL

Shots:

McGinn (£5.8m) (19) (450)
Maupay (£6.0m) (18) (361)
Tielemans (£6.7m) (18) (450)
Deulofeu (£6.1m) (17) (299)

Not to be outdone, John McGinn leads the pack for shots taken - notice too how often Tielemans is featuring. #FPL

Shots in the Box:

Maupay (£6.0m) (18) (361)
Pukki (£6.7m) (15) (354)
Jimenez (£7.3m) (13) (438)
Abraham (£8.0m) (12) (247)

Neal Maupay's underlying numbers are really encouraging for when Brighton have a great run...but can he turn these into points? #FPL

Shots on Target:

Pukki (£6.7m) (8) (354)
Vardy (£9.6m) (8) (450)
Wood (£6.2m) (7) (359)
Aubameyang (£11.0) (7) (450)
McGinn (£5.8m) (7) (450)

McGinn & Wood showing impressive accuracy, too. #FPL

That covers the guys who stood out in terms of performances against weaker opposition when playing at home - hopefully will help in terms of considering which players to target when you note a strong run of upcoming games (at home).

Let's look at the games away from home. #FPL

Touches in the Box:

Richarlison (£7.9m) (32) (518)
Rashford (£8.6m) (27) (510)
Pukki (£6.7m) (27) (450)
Abraham (£8.0m) (25) (460)
Haller (£7.2m) (25) (460)

Strikers dominate...but for the great differential (& reasonably priced) Richarlison. #FPL

Big Chances Created:

Richarlison (£7.9m) (3) (518)
Felipe Anderson (£6.8m) (3) (338)
Groß (£6.4m) (3) (292)
El Ghazi (£5.5m) (3) (240)

The Brazilian again tops the charts, and Groß is seemingly nice-and-creative away from home, as well as at the Amex. #FPL

Attempted Assists:

Lanzini (£6.3m) (14) (414)
Mount (£6.8m) (13) (529)
Rashford (£8.6m) (10) (510)
Willian (£7.1m) (10) (347)
Buendia (£6.0m) (10) (450)

2nd call-out for Marcus Rashford, & the maligned Mason Mount continues to feature. Lanzini plays for West Ham though :( #FPL

Big Chances:

Wesley (£6.0m) (5) (355)
Mount (£6.8m) (4) (529)
Abraham (£8.0m) (4) (460)
Martial (£7.8m) (4) (255)
Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) (4) (338)

Time for Tony M to crop-up, despite only playing 255 mins Vs. comparable opposition. Utd on the counter-attack away...? #FPL

xG (excluding penalties):

Haller (£7.2m) (2.3) (450)
Jota (£6.1m) (2.2) (271)
Abraham (£8.0m) (2.1) (460)
Mount (£6.8m) (2.0) (529)

Some curious ones here, though the well-owned Abraham & Mount again look strong options in away games against the weaker defences. #FPL

Shots:

Mount (£6.8m) (20) (529)
Abraham (£8.0m) (17) (460)
Rashford (£8.6m) (15) (510)
Maupay (£6.0m) (15) (279)
Richarlison (£7.9m) (15) (518)

Pure volume of shots features a lot of the names already seen...Maupay's in that few minutes is a standout. #FPL

Shots in the Box:

Abraham (£8.0m) (13) (460)
Rashford (£8.6m) (12) (510)
Maupay (£6.0m) (11) (279)

Would hardly describe this trio as a template front-three! #FPL

Shots on Target:

Abraham (£8.0m) (13) (460)
Wesley (£6.0m) (9) (355)
Mount (£6.8m) (9) (529)
Jimenez (£7.3m) (8) (346)

Tammy way out in front for these in away games, & can't ignore Mount's numbers either. The consistent Jimenez sneaks in, too. #FPL

That wraps things up.

Hope you found it interesting & potentially useful - thanks to the brilliant @FantasyFootyFix for their range of tools, stats, & great UI which I used for this analysis. Wholly recommend subscribing.

Cheers. #FPL 👍🏼