And now #BrexitDiagram has been adjusted in light of Electoral Calculus work in Northern Ireland - now based on 8 DUP, 7 SF and 3 Alliance seats won there
This is now in V3.0.0 of the diagram
This is now in V3.0.0 of the diagram
The change is first to the majority numbers - my baseline is still that DUP will side with neither bloc. But with DUP down to 8, and possibly 3 Alliance MPs, this means Tories now need 322 for working majority of 5
Other majority numbers on the diagram also adjusted accordingly
Other majority numbers on the diagram also adjusted accordingly
Outcomes (with change compared to V2.2.0 last week):
78% (⬆️, was 69%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
10% (⬆️, was 9%) Stalemate
12% (⬇️, was 22%) 2nd Referendum
78% (⬆️, was 69%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
10% (⬆️, was 9%) Stalemate
12% (⬇️, was 22%) 2nd Referendum
And yes, the chances of #Brexit happening by 31 Jan 2020 are going up. Pretty strongly. Because the chances of a Tory majority are going up. Pretty strongly.
/ends
/ends
Also the NI polling is here:
electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernirelan…
For those like @seandanaher5 saying it's more likely 2 SDLP and 1 Alliance, sure, that's fine. For my purposes both Alliance and SDLP go in the anti-Tory Brexit category in the calculation.
electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernirelan…
For those like @seandanaher5 saying it's more likely 2 SDLP and 1 Alliance, sure, that's fine. For my purposes both Alliance and SDLP go in the anti-Tory Brexit category in the calculation.
