Thread by @lewis_goodall

So...where are we? (Thread)

Journalists saying "we don't make predictions" is as tired as an activist after this December election. I'll make one. But #GE2019 has been revealing regardless of the result. Some things I've learnt on the way.

Firstly: the British public were deeply unhappy at this election. Not so much having it but with the choice they were being presented. They were incredulous and found it incredible. They couldn't quite believe they were having to choose between two men they found so unpalatable.

Nonetheless, it is Conservative resilience and strength that is most remarkable. This is a party about to enter its second decade in govt. Yet it is polling at 40% or more. It is advancing, not retreating. Far from falling from office it might be reaching its zenith.

That is despite years of chaos and economic sluggishness.

Doubtless if Johnson does return a decent majority, he and others will interpret it as a personal endorsement. It will not be. The public does not feel warmly about him. "Buffoon" is the word which comes up most (with remarkable frequency). He's just less unpopular than Corbyn.

Nonetheless, Johnson's gamble appears to have paid off. It was commonly assumed (by me included) that the Tories would start off encumbered as a result of automatically losing lots of ground in Scotland, London and south eastern seats. None of that appears to have come to pass.

As a result of largely holding their ground, it feels as if the Tories are on the advance almost everywhere. As a result, it's hard to see how a small majority doesn't materialise, even if (as I think) Labour manages to hang on in more places than is commonly assumed.

There are so many paths for them to a majority and only a narrow one for their opponents.

The 2019 Tory campaign has been the 2017 campaign but executed better. The 2017 campaign was based on two premises

1.) Labour would block Brexit
2.) Corbyn is a threat.

But Johnson had two advantages over May.

In 2017, Lab had just voted to trigger A50, the idea they would block Brexit was hard to sustain. I remember Lab Leavers at the time simply not even engaging with that idea.

That argument has been much easier to prosecute now.

Secondly, we forget that Corbyn was still a relatively unknown quantity in 2017.

Then, he impressed. Today, after four years of gruelling leadership he has found it harder to surprise.

In 2019 traditional northern/midlands Lab voters, JC has been an *enormous* problem.

JC has been a much bigger problem on the doorstep than Brexit. One MP described the two problems to me as being trapped in a "pincer movement".

We will see some very solid Labour seats fall.

But think of 2019 as part of a long process.

We're focussing on the red wall. But this wall has been looking wobbly for a long time.

The sorts of things which made them so solidly Labour in the past are precisely the sorts of things which have been pushing them away now.

-ethnically homogenous
-northern/midlands
-working class
-fewer graduates
-less professional
-semi urban
-old

That's why Leigh is falling away.

By contrast flip those round and you get seats trending away from the Tories and to Labour.

That's why Altrincham is going Lab's way.

There are more seats like Altrincham. Suburban, commuter seats, youner Worthing and Crawley, Thanet North. They will probably go Labour in the end. But not yet. There's an electoral map for the party which might yield at least a solid minority govt but we are prob not there yet.

In the meantime, Lab has to hope congenital Labourism is still strong enough to just see many of the majs in the red wall right down, whilst holding and advancing its growing young profes/middle class coalition to even make the odd gain. This scenario is entirely plausible.

Though if you put a gun to my head, for all the reasons above, I'd predict a modest Tory maj- things are volatile. Tactical voting, Lab ground game, Lib Dem strength in certain specific seats and still relatively large numbers of undecideds make things difficult to predict.

Whatever happens, it's an extraordinary election, the climax of a remarkable political year. Despite it all, it's been the most tremendous fun and privilege to cover, all across the country. Please go and vote. You'll want to tell your grandkids about this one.

Please do keep DMing your experiences campaigning and what you're hearing where you are, all throughout polling day. And thank you to all of those who have done throughout the campaign. It's been invaluable.

That's it from me until 2200! Forbidden from tweeting anything about politics until the polls open (SO. HARD).

But please join me on #ElectionSocial, our special election night programme I'll be anchoring throughout the night from 2145. It's going to be brilliant!