Thread: @henryfarrell and I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs on the future of globalization. Under the banner of 'Chained Globalization', we try to think through a path forward in a world where economic and security issues are increasingly linked. foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 2/In the wake of the Cold War, pundits hailed Globalization ushering in a new era of peace. Economic exchange had neutered states and made conflict illogical. While many have debunked Friedman and his vision of the flat world, the myth lingered. nytimes.com/1996/12/08/opi…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 3/This was not simply a news headline. policies like constructive engagement as well as the Washington consensus saw economic openness as a path to prosperity and peace.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 4/Current realities however suggest a very different reality. Global economic networks are increasingly a site of coercion rather than of peace.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 5/Global finance has become a key tool of US geo-strategic pressure. ft.com/content/2eddf6…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 6/Supply chains have turned from channels of specialization to vectors of attack. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 7/And information networks that were long seen as a key to political liberation are viewed as tools of state surveillance and control. reuters.com/article/us-nat…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 8/As policy-makers turn these economic networks into tools of coercion, there is a real risk of bad things happening from miscalculation to escalation. See, for example, unanticipated consequences of sanctions. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 9/Or retaliation through market statecraft. theguardian.com/world/2019/dec…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 11/And it looks like more and more countries are experimenting with these strategies. cnbc.com/2019/09/23/kor…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 12/As @henryfarrell and I have described elsewhere, weaponized interdependence offers key states powerful tools of coercion. But they also generate new risks to the system. mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.116…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 13/There is a real risk that as networks get turned into a new channel of vulnerability that states will seek to decouple economically, which would have huge negative effects on economic welfare. forbes.com/sites/harrybro…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 14/In our piece in @ForeignAffairs, we try to map out an alternative path -- Chained Globalization. We recognize that you cant put the genie back in the bottle but also stress the limits of true decoupling.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 15/Chained globalization accepts that globalization generates tremendous welfare but also comes with new security risks.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 16/The key is to understand the logic of the new security risks/how to manage them.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 17/Here we build on Gaddis and others, who identified the evolutionary dynamic of nuclear deterrence. Policy-makers did not wake up in 1949 with mutually assured destruction but had to invent it. muse.jhu.edu/article/446174…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 18/We are in a similar moment were we lack the concepts and toolkit to manage this new world of chained globalization.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 19/To do so, we will need more communication between economic and security bureaucracies. And also more expertise on economic issues in both. mayerbrown.com/en/perspective…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 20/Powerful states also have to develop a set of rules of the road for engagement with these new tools. This includes avoiding direct confrontation over key economic hubs. See, for example, level of tension over 5G. adweek.com/digital/a-cold…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 21/At the same time, major powers need to use these tools in a predictable and clear way. Otherwise, they invite miscalculation. newyorker.com/news/our-colum…
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 22/A world of chained globalization does not need to generate economic isolation. Instead, we have to come to terms with the fact that globalization has risks as well as benefits.
@henryfarrell @ForeignAffairs 23/This will involve more economic redundancies, some costs in terms of efficiency, but with a new more realistic focus on the way markets generate power.
