The election gives BJ the freedom to extend the transition, and to align UK & EU rules, if he wants to. He will probably do this, since leaving the transition without an FTA would be painful for the economy. He can take on ERG since he is master of his party. A thread. @CER_EU /1
Could BJ negotiate an FTA by end of 2020? In theory, yes, but only if he takes an off-shelf Canada-style deal and agrees to align with EU rules on social, envt, consumer, state aid & tax. At least one of BJ's most senior ministers favours doing this. /2
But even then, UK wd still need an extended transition, because as @SamuelMarcLowe says, a Can-style FTA is almost same as no deal for large parts of economy: no market access for most services & much border friction for goods (rules of origin, VAT, excise, customs forms). /3
To soften the shock firms would need a transition. Even then many supply chains wd evolve to exclude UK. And if UK won't align its rules with EU, EU will insist on Canada minus - FTA with tariffs - which wd take longer, 'cause it fears UK as deregulated Singapore-on-Thames /4
As for agriculture, UK will surely have to accept EU rules on plant & animal health, or the barriers to exporting to EU would be dreadful - everything going through approved inspection points. But if it does that, US will lose interest in an FTA, since ag is its No1 ask. /5
EU would like as close a relationship as possible but will prioritise level playing field commitments and governance, ie role of ECJ in dispute settlement. In next phase of talks EU will find it harder to maintain unity since different members have different priorities. /6
For example, free movement or fish or cars or agri or Gibraltar. But EU is ready, with its machinery in place, headed by @MichelBarnier. Some civil servants say UK not ready: it needs to set up a central system for working out negotiating priorities, so it knows what it wants. /7
Apparently work is just starting on this. One reason May handled phase one so badly was that it took her 2 years to work out what she wanted (answer was Chequers plan). BJ needs to act more speedily. He may be strong enough to impose his wishes on party. /8
As for UK politics, I don't see a BJ government agreeing to another Scottish referendum, which will lead to a constitutional crisis. I think it unlikely that SNP will, Catalan-style, hold a referendum without approval of London. /9
Labour will not become the party of Rejoin, but of a soft Brexit. It will either choose a moderate leader, in which case it will soon become a serious opposition. Or it will choose a Corbynite, in which case the party will split and it will be out of power for a generation. /10
The UK is highly unlikely to rejoin the EU for a generation. The damage that Brexit will inflict on the economy will be slow to become visible and many Brits will blame EU for giving them a bad deal. And even if a future govt seeks to rejoin, EU is likely to say no...../11
...unless there is a national consensus in favour of rejoining. If the opposition said 'We will leave if we win the next election' the EU would spurn the UK. And even if it did rejoin, UK would lose budget rebate & some of its opt-outs. /12
The best hope for UK (and EU) is for the EU to implement Macron's ideas of concentric circles/multiple cores and for UK to join some of these. No reason why UK should not play a leading role in security co-operation; mutually beneficial for all concerned. /ENDS
