Interesting to be on #r4today after @ph_lamberts who was indeed well informed about UK politics. He provided an interesting insight into the EU view that the PM is now under pressure to move to a 'softer' Brexit with more alignment with EU rules. I find this hard to see (1/4)
The PM has consistently rejected on-going alignment with EU rules. Indeed, he resigned from Cabinet over it & fought it from the backbenches. Some suggest he caved over NI & therefore will again. But any moves made then were to reduce UK wide alignment not increase it (2/4)
So the incentives of the example of the first phase actually run directly counter to the incentives at play in the next phase. The first phase of negotiations are therefore not a good precedent for PM view on alignment & should not be over interpreted (3/4)
For these reasons & fact that the large majority likely to be seen as validation of approach so far I think the EU would be making a mistake to assume the PM will shift to accepting on-going alignment with EU rules. If this view prevails we could be in for an early clash (4/4)
