If this exit poll proves correct, what does it mean for the approach to Brexit? A short thread with some initial views. Key point is that, at this stage, don't assume it means a softening of the Conservative position 1/
Such a large majority would mean Boris and his team are not reliant on any particular group. It reduces the power of the ERG. But this does not automatically mean there will be a softer approach to Brexit. It can equally be seen as a validation of the current strategy 2/
When it comes to policy, Boris always been consistent about his desire for a deal based on an FTA. Hard to imagine this moving much. He has never been keen on any form of ongoing alignment with the EU. Therefore, its not obvious what form softening would take on policy 3/
Yes this could allow for a lot more flexibility on time, the pressure is off. But the key question will be, what does more time gain you if the red lines on both sides are the same? This will be a careful calculation both sides have to make 4/
In the meantime it will be full steam ahead on leaving the EU by end of Jan 2020 and getting into the next phase. There is a lot of work to do on this and I'll be writing a lot more on this in the coming days hopefully so stay tuned! 5/ ENDS
