Thread by @pmdfoster

So. #Brexit is happening. The phoney war is over. This is good.
No more talk about 'remoaning' since remain is now dead. This is about choices, trade-offs and brass tacks.

A long read here on '10 steps', or rather decision points, to Brexit 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Step one: pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. Second reading before Christmas.

Question? Will the partst (S31) about consulting on trade/future mandate be diluted? Will there be a vote on future?

Thread on all that here: /2

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1200043234011090944

Step two: celebrate #Brexit day.

Yes, long road ahead, BUT the guillotine will descend on Jan 31 2020. No going back.

That's a BIG moment; can help move debate on; start engagement on HOW we deliver Brexit, not WHETHER we do.

That could create some space. /3

Step three: agree a future relationship mandate. The history of trade deals done without consent is not good. Talk that this majority means @BorisJohnson can do 'what he wants'. But it also gives him space to get consent, securely. When things get touch, might be glad of that/4

@BorisJohnson This will not be easy, however.

The PM, even if he gets his FTA, is going to be making people poorer, deliberately, per all the trade experts.

More friction, more cost - see @SamuelMarcLowe here - but some political case needs to be made. /5 cer.eu/insights/what-…

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe Step four: decide on whether to extend transition... some like @CER_Grant think logic of this is inexorable (or you end up owning mess in 2021) but @BorisJohnson has gut instinct against 'vassalage'. Two years with no seat at table is big ask. /6

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant And as @RaoulRuparel notes, what's the point if you are committed to hard divergence.

THAT is fundamental choice Johnson must make? Does his zest for 'freedom' survive as the moment approaches to step out into the cold? /7

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel As Merkel just said: "Great Britain will have to carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of leaving.”

Viz. The EU will impose costs. It'll be warmer if you cuddle closer.

But maybe BJ still does hard deal, then gets closer 2023/4 as consequences hit? /8

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel Step 5: seal a deal on fish. This is a precondition of a trade deal on EU side, ideally by July 1.

EU sources clear they'll look to provide figleaves to Johnson, but in terms of deliverables looks tough. /9

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel George Eustice, fishing ministers, has promised 000s more tonnes; EU says wants same access. Can't both be right.

The old CFP are inequitable, but as EU sources says: "This isn't about equity, its about negotiation".

Does fishing get sold out on way in...and on way out?
/10

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel Step 6: assemble a negotiating team

The majority should enable Johnson to get clear chain of command; wont need to triangulate so much.

Word is David Frost will lead; Gove gets the (poison?) chalice of int. trade deals...the revengers tragedy continues. /11

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel On that score, expectation in Whitehall that the deckchairs will be re-arranged.

Assumption that DexEU will get the bullet. Cabinet Office will grip negotiation which will be multi-siloed. Need to do security internal/external too. /12

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel Step 7: clarify arrangements for Northern Ireland frontstop.

Hard, given that it's contingent on EU-UK deal, but how the GB to NI filter work is going to be critical.

@tconnellyRTE tackles this here, but noises in Commission quite hard on this /13

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1205183474476474369

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE Some tough talk that 80-90 per cent of goods going to NI from GB will be 'at risk' - ie going through the Red Channel and needing rebates. As one source says: "when is an egg a retail product or a manufacturing input" - the default is 'red' /14

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE The risk is that the NI frontstop becomes unworkable...MS fears of 'risk' - and @hmtreasury fears of risk NI-GB - need to be carefull handled given state of politics in NI. /15

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE @hmtreasury Step 8: address devolution. It's NOT just that SNP @NicolaSturgeon has won 50-odd seats, it's that all those EU competencies come back to UK (Westminster) which sets up real clash with devolved govts if UK wants unified internal market/trade policy. /16

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE @hmtreasury @NicolaSturgeon Suddenly its not following Brussels rules as price of Single Market access but Westminster potentially clawing back devolved competencies (on ag, fish etc) in the name of 'UK' unity...could get messy, quickly. Need a mechanism to make intra-govt work /17

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE @hmtreasury @NicolaSturgeon Step 9: decide whether to prioritise trade deal with US for political reasons - @realDonaldTrump seems to be salivating - but as @awstojanovic sets out here, a 'quick win' risks being pyrrhic vicotry - with EU and US! /17

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/uk-trade-…

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE @hmtreasury @NicolaSturgeon Step 9: decide whether to prioritise trade deal with US for political reasons - @realDonaldTrump seems to be salivating - but as @awstojanovic sets out here, a 'quick win' risks being pyrrhic vicotry - with EU and US! /18

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/uk-trade-…

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE @hmtreasury @NicolaSturgeon @realDonaldTrump @awstojanovic Step 10: Brace for the autumn crunch. If the transition has not been extended, then Oct/Nov is when (as last Oct) we see whether Johnson really believes in Brexit or not? Does he soften at this point or keep driving? /19

@BorisJohnson @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @RaoulRuparel @tconnellyRTE @hmtreasury @NicolaSturgeon @realDonaldTrump @awstojanovic The answer will depend on what happens to issues above - fish, consent, devolution, Ireland...

Brexit means Brexit: this will be the point when the country really gets to find out what it does, actually mean. 20/ends