1/ Important thread on first phase of EU-UK Negotiations.
No decision from EU yet on sequencing, but likely to be Goods (Tariffs), Fishing and Level Playing Field.
What could this mean?
No decision from EU yet on sequencing, but likely to be Goods (Tariffs), Fishing and Level Playing Field.
What could this mean?
2/ If those are the three issues, the negotiations come down to whether there's a level of fishing access and level playing field provisions both sides are comfortable with alongside full tariff elimination.
If no such balance can't be found and the tariff deal is reopened...
If no such balance can't be found and the tariff deal is reopened...
3/ Then the two sides start negotiating tariff line by tariff line and the chances of getting any kind of agreement by December 2020 plummet.
4/ Beyond that though, where the UK should have some concerns is what happens next.
If a Phase I deal locks in full goods access and gives the EU what it wants on LPF and Fish, the UK has far less to trade for the services access it wants in Phase II.
If a Phase I deal locks in full goods access and gives the EU what it wants on LPF and Fish, the UK has far less to trade for the services access it wants in Phase II.
5/ Getting services access is hugely important to the UK but it's hard to do in an FTA, and the UK faces three additional challenges:
a) It's very open already;
b) It's very competitive in services;
c) It has made political commitments against Freedom of Movement.
a) It's very open already;
b) It's very competitive in services;
c) It has made political commitments against Freedom of Movement.
6/ There's a danger that by rushing through a deal to get goods, fish and LPF done, the UK leaves itself with a near empty quiver when it comes time to have the Services conversation.
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