There is, incidentally, one other factor in Labour's defeat. It's an obvious one, but strangely ignored.
Over the broad piece, the Tories have been in power since 2010; Labour were in power between 1997 and 2010. What was the number one factor in both of those?
Over the broad piece, the Tories have been in power since 2010; Labour were in power between 1997 and 2010. What was the number one factor in both of those?
The economy: specifically, the government having had its reputation for economic competence destroyed. That happened to Labour in 2008; the Tories on Black Wednesday (White Wednesday from where I'm sat).
The moment any opposition crosses the rubicon and becomes the government-in-waiting is when it consistently polls higher than the government on economic competence. Corbyn's Labour never did; nor did Miliband's Labour. Blair's Labour did for 15 years.
What we've had for over a decade now is an extraordinarily sluggish economy: a direct result of George Osborne's disastrous policies. But we've had a media who've never highlighted that... and we've never had a crash. That's always what changes things.
Thatcher's Tories were massively unpopular during recessions, then always recovered with the next boom. Heath's government was voted out after the Three Day Week; Callaghan's after the Winter of Discontent.
What does all this mean? Very simply, that for many decades now, the opposition winning power has scarcely been in its own hands at all. It's more a question of fate. Whichever government is caught holding the ball during a deep recession almost always pays the price.
One rare exception being the 1992 general election: when memories of the winter of discontent (amplified enormously by the tabloid press) were still too vivid, so the electorate panicked at John Smith's shadow budget. But their doubts over Major were confirmed within 5 months.
Of course, FPTP is now so rigged, and the media (including the BBC) is now so feral that maybe none of the old rules still apply. But this essential one likely does. Sadly, it means that the probable route to a Labour victory lies in Brexit being a total, unmitigated disaster.
Even then, I don't think people will admit they got it wrong for many years. Probably a decade. But voters in the middle will switch: they always do when the economy falls apart. Obama's genius didn't win him the 2008 election; the global crash did.
