Some quick thoughts on what's to come in 2020 for the UK, summary being this is set to be a momentous year with the decisions made shaping economics and politics for years to come.. 1/
We'll leave the EU at the end of January, but trading relations will be mostly unaffected for the rest of the year. Mostly. But if there are problems trading, with EU or globally, we're on our own in solving them. And there will be... 2/
Meanwhile we have to decide the entire regulatory base of our economy, to bind in trade deals, or not, in 2020. If not, we're either extending transition or trading with the world on mostly WTO terms 3/
A small example I used speaking to Radio Scotland this morning. A US trade deal could mean charging our definition of what can be called 'Whisky'. Such are the regulations, and trade deals, we'll be discussing. Whole industries will be impacted 4/
For business this means 2020 has to be a year of preparing for WTO trading terms, preparing for an FTA, or no change, while trying to influence that decision and the regulations applying to their sector. A big job... 5/
Remain v leave will cease to be a thing under those terms, and the Labour Party may or may not be in any way relevant. But the status of Scotland and Northern Ireland will be huge issues, and splits between government departments on key issues quite likely. 6/
It will be interesting to see if former remainers are able to organise something new, or just disappear from the political debate to concentrate on infighting. But equally do leavers / government start making tough decisions or keep blaming the EU? 7/
Then there's a UK US trade deal, where the question is whether this will be a full deal, accepting US food standards, and completed by September, or a Trump style 'great' deal that just tackles a few things. Decisions with consequences about the UKs future... 8/
Looking wider the US election is pivotal for the future of the world trading system and WTO. The WTO may not survive 4 more years of Trump, will struggle even without, and countries may soon have to start talking about WTO mark 2 - without the US. 9/
And yet trade will continue, in 2020 in the UK doubtless credited to the success of Brexit. We are world leaders in many areas of services, but these sectors aren't equally spread around the country. Domestically that could be a big issue in economic policy 10/
Much more to be said in 2020, meanwhile farewell 2019, which may yet become known as the year which set in motion the break up of the UK, or for me the first time I was on the winning side of a quiz for about 25 years... best wishes to all... 11/ end
