1. Watching some of the reporting of the U.S. elimination of the commander of Iran’s Quds Force.
Some things to remember in context that might not make reports.
The Quds Force is part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
Some things to remember in context that might not make reports.
The Quds Force is part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
2. Those of us old enough to remember the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the subsequent hostage crisis know the political stakes. For those that can’t remember it, watch the movie ‘Argo’ (it’s a great film in its own right).
3. The U.S. Embassy hostage crisis was a large part of the backdrop to the 1980 U.S. Presidential election campaign. It doubtless added to undermining Jimmy Carter’s shot at a second term.
4. Unless you’ve been to Tehran, it’s difficult for a Westerner to understand how much the November 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy & hostages, remains part of the Islamic Revolution’s identity & mythology.
5. In 1979, the U.S. Embassy in Tehran was stormed by a proxy mob, they took the hostages. The mob attempting to storm the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad looked similar. The Iranians knew exactly what they were doing. They were threatening to dominate the U.S. election with a replay.
6. Part of that replay would require hostages, lots of them, as high profile as possible. It’s possible that’s what Quds we’re thinking too. It worked (as they think) once for them before. They know Trump does not want a war, they probably thought they could get away with it.
7. They were wrong about that.
However, they’ll still be thinking about taking hostages to have an election year ‘hostage crisis’. One off terrorist attacks don’t have the same ability to stay in the daily news cycle loop. More hostages, more partial releases, negotiations etc
However, they’ll still be thinking about taking hostages to have an election year ‘hostage crisis’. One off terrorist attacks don’t have the same ability to stay in the daily news cycle loop. More hostages, more partial releases, negotiations etc
8. The message they might have got is that any such idea is too crazy to further entertain. That if they do it, the decisions makers may end up being held personally and permanently & kinetically accountable. Hopefully they got that part of the message.
Here's how NBC broke the news of the overrunning of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in November 1979. The story ended up being a dominant feature of the 1980 presidential election that saw Carter fail to win a second term:
And here's the NBC report on what was still the ongoing attempt to overrun the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad (by Iranian proxies) earlier this week. nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s…
I suspect Soleimani was trying to make history again.
They found out Trump isn't the same as Carter.
I suspect Soleimani was trying to make history again.
They found out Trump isn't the same as Carter.
Trump, in his warning to the regime in Tehran, now markedly makes direct reference to the American hostages of 1979/80. I think this further underlines that what we saw play out in the last few days was indeed an attempt by Iran to do a replay: google.com/amp/s/www.nbcn…
