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1. This is a big deal: The US-led Coalition has suspended operations against ISIS in Iraq, as resources are reassigned to protect American facilities and personnel:
2. This is what analysts and Iraq watchers feared, following the strike that killed Suleimani. Expecting retaliation from Iran, the Coalition has decided to pause ongoing operations against ISIS so that it can focus on protecting assets and personnel: nytimes.com/2020/01/05/us/…
3. At the same time, the Iraqi parliament has voted to expel American forces from Iraq, as @Alissanyt @StevenErlanger and @farnazfassihi just reported: nytimes.com/2020/01/05/wor…
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Rukmini Callimachi
@rcallimachi
1. Adventures in American parenting: My son’s daycare sent him home with a list of the other babies in his class entitled “For Valentine’s Day.” My son can’t yet speak much less write so the implication is that I, his mom, will fill out cards for a bunch of babies all under age 1
2. My first reaction was awwww, how cute. My second was the revolted immigrant Rukmini, one whose mom never helped me with homework, and who once came to my cross-country meet, embarrassing me so thoroughly by running after me with a liter of Evian, I asked her not to come again
3. For most of elementary & high school, I was mortified by how my family couldn’t get with the program. For example, trying to give Trick or Treaters $1 bills. Like the kids were strippers. When I insisted it had to be candy, they tried placing sticky cupcakes in their pumpkins
Read 5 tweets
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Rukmini Callimachi
@rcallimachi
1. ISIS has claimed the stabbing that occurred in South London this weekend, describing the attacker as one of their “fighters” and adding that he was responding to calls to target Coalition countries:
2. That phrase (“responding to calls to target citizens of allied countries”) is a quote from a speech by the former ISIS spokesman who called for sympathizers to carry out revenge against the Coalition fighting ISIS wherever they may be in the world and through whatever means:
3. What that indicates is that the London Streatham attacker was *inspired* by ISIS propaganda, rather than directed by the group. This shouldn’t be a surprise by now - most ISIS attacks are in the inspired category, a tactic that ISIS adopted as a way to extend its reach.
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Rukmini Callimachi
@rcallimachi
1. Some news: Last November, an on-the-ground informant in Yemen shared a key piece of information with the United States: The location of Qassim al-Rimi, the head of al-Qaeda’s affiliate in the region. This week, a CIA drone took aim at him: nytimes.com/2020/01/31/wor… via @NYTimes
2. The United States has not yet confirmed whether the strike they took killed al-Rimi, the head of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. But in Yemen, local news outlets reported that a strike in Wadi Abedah, a known hotbed of al-Qaeda killed two, unidentified militants.
3. al-Rimi is one of the few al-Qaeda leaders still left who can trace his terrorist pedigree to the pre-9/11 era. He trained in al-Qaeda's camps in Afghanistan, before returning to his native Yemen, explains @thomasjoscelyn.
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Brian Tyler Cohen
@briantylercohen
Here's what Trump's strike has accomplished *so far*...

-The US-led Coalition has suspended operations against ISIS as resources are reassigned to protect US personnel
-The Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces from Iraq as we lose a strategic foothold in the Middle East
-Moderates have now united with hardliners in Iran in mourning the death of Soleimani, all but ensuring hardline rule in Iran for the foreseeable future
-Missiles are being fired at US bases & our embassy in Iraq
-A purported cyberattack on the US Federal Depository Library site
-Iran will no longer abide by any limits of its 2015 nuclear deal. That means no restrictions on uranium enrichment, on the number of centrifuges, on R&D. Iran will now be a nuclear power.

All while Trump is still - STILL - at the fucking golf course.
Read 3 tweets
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Jeff Seldin
@jseldin
Reports #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi may have been killed in #Idlib #Syria shouldn't come as a complete surprise-at least the location

In July, a @UN report warned senior ISIS leaders "are among those who have made their way to the #Idlib area..."
@UN Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi most recent messages: a video from April 29 & an audio message from September 16

But for someone like Baghdadi sending out messages always comes with a risk...
After the release of the audio in September, BrigGen Len Anderson, deputy commander of JTF-Ares, told VOA:
"The more videos that come out gives us, quite honestly, another opportunity to assess, to see what #ISIS leadership is thinking & maybe gather some intelligence from that"
Read 14 tweets
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
4. The legacy of US, UK, Australia, Poland and NATO in Iraq

#Iraq #CrimesAgainstHumanity #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstChildren
1. The legacy of US, UK, Australia, Poland and NATO in Iraq 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1135299…
2. The legacy of US, UK, Australia, Poland and NATO in Iraq 🤨👇🏼
Read 61 tweets
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Jennifer Cafarella
@JennyCafarella
Its here - the ISW report warning that #ISIS is back in #Iraq & #Syria

From me with @thestudyofwar’s Brandon Wallace & Jason Zhou

Full report available online here: understandingwar.org/report/isiss-s…

Key points & graphics to follow
1/
#ISIS's "remnants" are much stronger than al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI/ISI) was when US forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011

ISIS has ~30K fighters. AQI had ~1K

ISIS has relatively intact leadership; AQIs was decimated

This chart gives a rough overall comparison (sources in report)
2/
ISIS's second comeback could be worse than its resurgence from 2012-2014

Our report explains how #ISIS likely already has the capacity to seize an urban center in #Iraq or #Syria but is waiting to build strength & degrade enemies so it can seize many at once & hold them

3/
Read 19 tweets
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Jeff Seldin
@jseldin
DEVELOPING: #ISIS force strength now may be close to its peak in 2015.
As of June 2018, estimated 28,600 to 31,600 #Daesh fighters in #Iraq #Syria per IG report

US intelligence estimates had 33,000 #ISIS fighters at group's peak in 2015

h/t @nickglavin
The same report says there are about 200 #ISIS fighters in #Philippines

media.defense.gov/2018/Aug/07/20…
#ISIS caliphate gone but it's foot soldiers remain-as many as 32,000 #Daesh in #Iraq #Syria per latest @DeptofDefense intel

At its peak US intel officials said ISIS boasted about 33,000 fighters
voanews.com/a/far-from-dea…
Read 15 tweets
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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
Make no mistake - the #ISIS problem is a long, long way from going away, in both #Syria & #Iraq.

Raids, ambushes, assassinations, IEDs, kidnappings, extortion/intimidation etc. It’s all continuing, while everyone proclaims “victory” and the fight [near] “over."
#ISIS is back to bombings, assassinations, kidnappings across #Diyala, #Kirkuk & Salah ad Din - in scenes eerily reminiscent of 2011-2014.

This has been building for weeks, but thanks @LizSly for bringing more attention - the fight is **far** from over.

wapo.st/2mrXJPQ?tid=ss…
@LizSly Former #Iraq-i National Security Advisor al-Rubaie:

- “There's going to be an imminent resurgence of #ISIS. You can see it in the records & the intelligence reports”

More deeply worrying reports, this time from @AbdoGeneive:

reuters.com/article/us-abd…
Read 5 tweets

Trending hashtags

#terrorists #YPG #drone #Saddam_Hussein #Syria #Salahuddin #EuropeanUnion #Nineveh #judge #Khmeimim #BasaltOperation #Turkey #Europe #Raqqah #Sairoon #Iran #foreign #USA #Assad #TigerForces #civilians #President #Homs #GreatBritain #Barisha
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