Thread by @jseldin

DEVELOPING: #ISIS force strength now may be close to its peak in 2015.
As of June 2018, estimated 28,600 to 31,600 #Daesh fighters in #Iraq #Syria per IG report

US intelligence estimates had 33,000 #ISIS fighters at group's peak in 2015

h/t @nickglavin

The same report says there are about 200 #ISIS fighters in #Philippines

media.defense.gov/2018/Aug/07/20…

#ISIS caliphate gone but it's foot soldiers remain-as many as 32,000 #Daesh in #Iraq #Syria per latest @DeptofDefense intel

At its peak US intel officials said ISIS boasted about 33,000 fighters
voanews.com/a/far-from-dea…

To date, the US has $14.3 billion on more than 24,000 airstrikes to destroy #ISIS in #Iraq #Syria, with military officials saying airstrikes alone have killed 50,000 jihadists - but the new intel estimates say the net result is a reduction of about 1,500 fighters

“Taken at face value, the US government is saying #ISIS has the same number of fighters in Iraq and Syria today as when the bombing campaign began,” @thomasjoscelyn tells @VOANews

"There is no question that #ISIS has had a prolific recruiting machine" per @thomasjoscelyn, adding if the numbers are right "They are saying that ISIS was able to replace its entire force structure despite fighting multiple adversaries in both countries"

“#ISIS is in the process of a largely successful transition to a networked terrorist organization" @nickglavin tells @VOANews re intel 32,000 fighters in #Iraq #Syria "Illustrates the mounting challenge faced by our partners in Iraq & Syria to deliver ISIS an enduring defeat"

#ISIS looking resurgent not just in #Iraq #Syria. Senior US counterterrorism officials tells @VOANews there are 1,000-1,500 fighters in #Afghanistan, up from about 600-700 this time last year

Caveat-US military, intel officials have long been wary about numbers & counting #ISIS fighters, warning it is at best an inexact science

Also worth noting that at it's peak, when US estimated #ISIS had 33,000 fighters in #Iraq #Syria, senior defense officials thought only about 17,000 were 'card-carrying' members & truly devoted to the cause

Who is counted as an #ISIS fighter is also a problem, as different intel estimates count differently-some including family members or ISIS supporters who did not actually fight, like doctors, bureaucrats, IT specialists, etc

For the latest US #ISIS estimates, a senior defense official told @VOANews it's possible the numbers could include family members, others w/strong connections to #Daesh, though not necessarily capable or willing to take up arms/conduct terror attacks

Also Monday, a new @UN report based on member state intel seemed to support the US estimates on #ISIS fighters in #Iraq #Syria, saying there are “between 20,000 and 30,000 [ISIS] individuals, roughly equally distributed between the two countries”

Those numbers include “a significant component” of the thousands of #foreignfighters who flocked to #Iraq #Syria to join the self-declared #ISIS caliphate, per the @UN report, further warning they are not breaking rank

“Despite the damage to bureaucratic structures of the so-called ‘caliphate,’ the collective discipline of #ISIL is intact,” the report continued “Although he is reported to have been injured, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi remains in authority”
re @UN #ISIS report