Speaking not as an Iran expert - I'm not - but as a guy who teaches about deterrence, a few initial impressions about how Iran's response was kind of smart. It leaves the U.S. ahead (we got Soleimani and so far haven't paid much), but Iran was both careful *and* escalatory. /1
The key to this kind of escalation is to show your opponent you'll act, communicate your threat clearly, show that you have options, indicate that you have more cards to play, but leave the other guy a way out. Check, check, and check. /2
Trump made the opening bid, and it was big. Iran is not up for an immediate conflict, which it would lose, if we define lose by "take a lot of damage." (No one is going to march into Tehran. Sorry, MAGA Nation.) But jumping to ballistic launches from Iran to Iraq was big, too. /3
Trump changed the rules, so Iran changed its rules as well. The U.S. killed an Iranian bad guy - a very bad guy - and so Iran made it personal, showing they'll reach out, hit us directly, and *take responsibility for it*. But not doing a lot of damage wisely left a door open. /4
This was a good break for Trump. Like a poker player with a big stake who was trying to get the other guy not only to fold, but to leave the table, Iran called rather than raised. All to the good. We take a smaller pot. But the other guy is still in the game and formidably so. /5
I raise all of this as a reminder: The Iranians are good at this. Do not underestimate them. I think Trump did just that when he told his advisers he could scrag Soleimani and there wouldn't be a response. There was. Next time, we could end up in a place we don't want to be. /6x
