“We were talking to a healthy amount of new partners for this year and all of those conversations went to zero. I’m seeing a tightening of innovation budgets around automotive and mobility because we’re entering that trough of disillusionment for autonomy." @tedserbinski
@tedserbinski I don't think this is just about autonomy. Almost every major "mobility tech" play has struggled to build a sustainable business, from Uber/Lyft and delivery companies to Micromobility companies and the entire autonomous drive ecosystem. Some have bright futures, but many don't.
@tedserbinski The idea that Silicon Valley startup culture could transfer seamlessly from software to moving physical objects in meatspace has almost always been oversold. The high capital requirements in mobility have been consistently underestimated while margins have been overestimated.
@tedserbinski Mobility may also be "stickier" for consumers than other areas, as we typically optimize for consistency/reliability/ubiquity rather than factors like efficiency. People are very conservative in their mobility consumption choices, making it harder for new models to take hold.
@tedserbinski The increasingly rapid hype cycle in mobility tech investing trends was probably another sign of trouble. Autonomy had a fairly rapid hype cycle, but micromobility's hype cycle was mayfly-like in its brevity. That acceleration probably scared off a lot of dilettante investors.
@tedserbinski It's not just startups. Major OEM-backed mobility plays like Daimler's Car2Go and Movel are in full retreat, with the former pulling out of the US and the latter apparently going through massive layoffs. OEMs can't keep burning cash on these experiments going into a down cycle.
@tedserbinski Down-cycle shakeouts are painful but are ultimately healthy for the space. Unfortunately there are great companies with very real opportunities that will be unable to raise the capital they need to survive. They'll be the innocent collateral damage of VC and OEM trend-chasing.
@tedserbinski Anyway, read @kirstenkorosec's scoop on the TechStars Detroit shutdown. She provides some great context on the global nature of this challenging period for mobility tech investment. It's not just a Silicon Valley thing... techcrunch.com/2020/01/30/tec…
@tedserbinski @kirstenkorosec Finally, the disconnect between the VC/strategic investment environment around mobility tech and the public market mania for Tesla should be pretty obvious. One hesitates to use the "smart money-dumb money" framework because VC/strategics created the problem... but the shoe fits.
