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No country will treat the UK as an equal in trade deals with a government this ignorant. An Australian style deal isn't even a thing. And all trade deals involve concessions. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
Still, just in case we were worried that at least the government wouldn't repeat all the mistakes of Brexit phase 1 not least in giving a speech setting impossible red lines... here we go again.

And mass eye-rolling breaks out in Brussels.
Publishing draft text worked so well for the Alternative Arrangements Commission... suspect the same source for the idea
Oh, and we already have access to the Japanese market. And the Australian and New Zealand markets are also pretty open.

If Johnson's speech is anything like this story the world will simply assume the UK is still talking to itself. Because this isn't trade policy.
More on the impact of no ECJ and no alignment tomorrow. Because this is more significant than no trade deal. This is the government ruling out Erasmus, Euratom, research programmes, aviation safety authority, medicines agency and much more.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
After yesterday's flurry of UK-EU trade talks documentation today the reflection - that the UK government has committed to a massive increase in trade barriers with Europe, which will scarcely be offset anywhere else. Demonstrating the truth of this statement... 1/
Of course that's an extract from Boris Johnson's speech yesterday in which he lauded the virtues of free trade, then committed to take action to restrict it. Because no alignment, if taken literally, is going to mean either no trade agreement, or a very thin tariff only one. 2/
Favoured Number 10 courtiers have been making the argument that the EU is protectionist, and out of step with the rest of the world in their approach to reguatory alignment. Both complex subjects, but broadly (though with exceptions) the argument doesn't hold up at all 3/
Read 13 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
We have a draft Commission negotiating mandate and a Johnson speech at the same time. Hard to keep up - but interesting from Johnson that the UK's approach to food being included in US trade deal remains ambiguous.
Essentially - we can have a US trade deal if we accept US food and an EU trade deal if we accept EU level playing field conditions. The two may yet clash in a couple of areas.
Important point. The predominant view globally is that the UK is part of the move towards protectionism (leaving the EU, restrictive on movement of people), and the UK overall is likely to be more closed to trade after Brexit than before.
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There may be no need in theory but there is in practice, because that's the price of preferential access to a huge market (though far less preferential than today)
There's also no need to be making such a big deal of this if actually we agree with the EU on the need for high levels of e.g social protection

Negotiating bluster or hard red lines? Trouble is nobody knows, probably including the UK government.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
NEW. 💥 What Boris Johnson will say tomorrow on the next Brexit talks with EU 💥

1. “There is no need for a free trade agreement to involve accepting EU rules on competition policy, subsidies, social protection, the environment” (cont)
2. “... or anything similar any more than the EU should be obliged to accept UK rules”

“The UK will maintain the highest standards in these areas – better, in many respects, than those of the EU – without the compulsion of a treaty and it is vital to stress this now” 🔥 #Brexit
3. “We have often been told that we must choose between full access to the EU market, along with accepting its rules and courts on the Norway model, or an ambitious free trade agreement, which opens up markets and avoids the full panoply of EU regulation on the example of Canada”
Read 7 tweets
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Georgina Wright
@GeorginaEWright
#Brexit postcard from Paris: what is France thinking? Thread
1. Brexit is not the EU's priority: like the UK, France does not want Brexit dominating the news. Most important EU decisions now are MFF & green deal. Other EU countries think the same as @Mij_Europe said y'day:
2. Trade talks will be far from easy: France (like rest of EU) knows UK wants to diverge - the key concern for France is how to prevent divergence from (i) undercutting EU business & (ii) disrupting trade flows. Trade-off is simple: lower standards, reduced market access.
Read 12 tweets
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
In this thread, we would like to address a few brexit issues. But before we do, we would like you to look up the terms 'Potemkin Village' and 'force multiplier' #brexit
2/ In the UK, there has *NEVER* been a demand for a hard brexit. @_SimonBarnett can get you some stats on this. And the Tory backbench MPs who kept the flame of euroscepticism alive for decades talked about a Swiss style deal with the EU or a Norway deal, an FTA at the least.
3/ But then in a approximately 11 year period a perfect storm grew - A: the EU pushed for more treaty powers B: The EU wished to expand and incorporate new member states C: The media started reporting more about interfering "Brussels Bureaucrats".
Read 23 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Clive Bates
@Clive_Bates
More on the slow death of a dream. Telegraph #Brexit briefing is softening up the faithful for the inevitable permanent fudge, hinting at another five years in the customs union (and, necessarily, in the single market). This ‘interim period’ would, in practice, never end. 1/10
So the resolution of the Cabinet squabble over future customs arrangements is, “customs partnership and *then* #maxfac” so the government can do what it does best: avoid making the choice. 2/10
But UK and EU tariffs will not diverge in practice because of the preposterous tracking requirements this would trigger under the customs partnership. Fox can’t sign trade deals until this works, which it won’t - and no one will even try if it is merely an interim. 3/10
Read 11 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
1/ Very small thread on why many people (including me) have been getting #Brexit wrong. We've been blinded by the theatre & complex issues of the "EU negotiations" - but in fact its much simpler than that....indeed.....
2/ #Brexit "EU negotiations" are not in any significant way actually taking place, & to the extent that that they are at a minor level even these are largely irrelevant. Once I grasped this everything else of the last 12 months made sense.....
3/ The political establishment whether Corbyn's Labour or May's Conservatives (& indeed much of the political media) are, contrary to the breathless reporting of BBC etc, largely unconcerned with the concrete nature of the EU process (not negotiations) of #Brexit. For 2 reasons..
Read 12 tweets

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